Forecasting global security: A look ahead to 2045

As the world is shrouded by uncertainties, UN Institute for Disarmament Researchers put out 5 distinct scenarios for the future of security in 2045

As the world braces for the challenges of the future, the geopolitical landscape of 2045 remains shrouded in uncertainty. Against a backdrop of shifting power dynamics and technological advancements, experts warn of divergent pathways leading to both promise and peril. In a bid to decipher the complexities ahead, analysts at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) in Geneva have drafted five distinct scenarios that offer a glimpse into the potential trajectories of global security toward 2045. From the specter of conflict to the promise of cooperation, these scenarios shed light on the forces shaping our world and the choices we face.

Here are the five scenarios for the future:

War and peace

In this scenario, the world grapples with increasing geopolitical fragmentation and ideological schisms. Low-level conflicts and proxy wars have become distressingly commonplace, eroding the foundations of the international rules-based order. Cooperation at the multilateral level falters, and belligerents resort to military force as the primary means of resolving disputes. Geopolitical tensions dictate trade and supply chains, exacerbating existing disparities in wealth distribution. The environment continues to deteriorate amidst a reliance on fossil fuels, while innovation stagnates. Trust in institutions declines, leading to hostile policies towards migrants and a decline in democratic characteristics.

Waiting for godot

Here, traditional state-centric approaches give way to the ascendance of private actors in international affairs. The rules-based order, forged by states, undergoes a period of weakening as private entities assert influence. Conflicts are predominantly intra-state, and there is a notable absence of governance regarding emerging technologies. Despite technological advancements, most democracies are perceived as flawed. Migration patterns remain similar to the present, while regional trade and sustainable supply chains gain prominence. Mixed trust in national and international institutions characterizes this scenario, alongside contained climate disasters.

A modern utopia

This scenario paints a picture of unprecedented harmony and progress, propelled by revitalized multilateral cooperation. Past crises, including COVID-19 and economic downturns, serve as catalysts for transformative change. Relations between states are harmonious, bolstered by a renewed commitment to multilateralism and peacebuilding efforts. The widespread adoption of green technologies ushers in an era of environmental sustainability, while equitable wealth distribution ensures global stability. Access to food, water, and health care is guaranteed, and migration becomes safe and regulated.

Paradise lost

Against a backdrop of escalating conflicts and authoritarian resurgence, the world descends into chaos. States exhibit little willingness to resolve disputes through diplomacy, leading to the collapse of the international rules-based order. Trust in institutions erodes, and authoritarian governments become the norm. National health systems falter in the face of crises, exacerbating the impact of worsening climate conditions. Inter-state relationships fracture, and the liveability of Earth declines precipitously.

Fragmented fault lines

In this scenario, the world is characterized by multiple spheres of hegemony and heightened self-reliance. Trust and cooperation are in deficit, with private actors exerting significant influence on state behavior. Governance structures fragment and states prioritize precautionary measures over collaboration. The benefits of innovation are unequally distributed, leading to fragmented energy sources and exacerbating the effects of climate change. Migration patterns remain unchanged from the early 2020s, with minimal improvements in safety and orderliness.

How is the current global landscape?

The world currently faces numerous pressing issues, including geopolitical tensions, economic disparities, environmental degradation and global health crises. These challenges underscore the reality that significant work remains to be done to achieve the vision of a modern utopia.

While progress has been made in some areas, the presence of ongoing conflicts, geopolitical rivalries, and socioeconomic inequalities suggests that the world has not yet reached a state of utopia.

While there have been strides toward cooperation and progress in certain areas, such as climate change mitigation efforts and advancements in technology, the global landscape remains characterized by significant challenges and uncertainties. We can say that the world is now closer to the “Fragmented fault lines” with the hope of reaching a modern utopia.

What to do to prevent chaos?

In a world rife with geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, the imperative for collaborative action toward global security has never been more pressing. As nations grapple with an array of complex challenges, from pandemics to climate change to geopolitical rivalries, strategic pathways for action are essential to steer toward a future defined by peace and prosperity. Here, UNIDIR outlines five crucial pathways for action identified by experts and policymakers:

Promoting inclusivity in decision-making

At the heart of effective global governance lies inclusivity and representation. Empowering marginalized voices and ensuring equitable participation within international institutions are pivotal steps towards fostering diversity in decision-making. By breaking down barriers and amplifying the voices of underrepresented groups, nations can cultivate a more inclusive and representative global governance framework.

Fostering dialogue and cooperation

Diplomatic engagement and dialogue serve as linchpins for building trust and mitigating tensions among nations. Through confidence-building measures and diplomatic initiatives, nations can pave the way for constructive collaboration on shared challenges. Prioritizing open dialogue and fostering an environment conducive to cooperation are essential strategies in navigating the complexities of the global landscape.

Investing in resilience and preparedness

In an era marked by uncertainty and volatility, investing in resilience and preparedness is paramount. Strengthening state capacities, including robust health care systems and disaster response mechanisms, is critical for effectively addressing emerging threats and crises. By bolstering resilience at the national and international levels, nations can better weather storms and minimize the adverse impact on communities worldwide.

Upholding international norms and institutions

The rules-based international order serves as a cornerstone for global stability and cooperation. Upholding international law and adhering to established norms are essential for preventing conflicts and ensuring predictability in international relations. By reaffirming commitment to the principles of international law and supporting multilateral institutions, nations can safeguard the integrity of the global governance system.

Engaging with non-state actors

Acknowledging the growing influence of non-state actors, including civil society organizations and the private sector, is crucial for enhancing governance and legitimacy in international affairs. These actors bring valuable expertise, resources, and perspectives to the table. By fostering collaborative partnerships and integrating non-state actors into decision-making processes, nations can harness their collective wisdom and capabilities to address global challenges effectively.