Türkiye poised for key role in regional energy security after Assad’s fall: experts

The fall of Syria’s 61-year Baath regime marks a significant shift in the region, with growing attention on Türkiye’s evolving energy security policies. Experts underscore the importance of regional stability and energy geopolitics, pointing to Türkiye’s key role in reconstruction efforts.

Kate Dourian, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Türkiye’s state-run news agency Anadolu that Türkiye stands to benefit from the overthrow of Assad, depending on the new interim government’s ability to stabilize Syria.

With Syria’s major oil and gas fields outside central government control, Damascus had relied on Iran for fuel supplies.

“Iran won’t be able to supply oil to Syria after Assad’s fall,” Dourian said. Last year, Iran delivered around 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil to Syria.

Türkiye, with its influence over Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), could provide fuel to Syria and likely play a role in the reconstruction, Dourian noted.

Syria’s oil production had plummeted due to years of turmoil, dropping from 171,000 bpd in 2012 to just 93,000 bpd by 2022, leaving the country heavily reliant on Iran. Additionally, the PKK/YPG terror group, operating as the SDF, and Daesh had seized control of key oil fields.

Dourian mentioned that Russian efforts to revive Syria’s energy sector had stalled due to US sanctions, opening up opportunities for Turkish energy companies to step in.

Syria’s strategic importance in energy corridors

Haydar Oruc, a Türkiye-based Middle East researcher, emphasized that Syria’s strategic importance lies in its location along key energy corridors.

He highlighted projects like the Arab Natural Gas Pipeline, which aims to transport Egyptian gas to Türkiye and eventually Europe. However, Syria’s civil war has limited its potential.

Opportunities for Türkiye

Oruc added that Türkiye will continue to support Syria’s reconstruction, focusing on integrating Syria’s energy resources into the economy.

“This will open up opportunities for cooperation in developing new resources, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Oruc said, stressing the need to remove terrorist control over energy assets.

Once stability is restored, Türkiye stands ready to assist in rebuilding Syria’s energy infrastructure, Oruc concluded.