Taiwan election: Global concerns, US response and China’s stance

Taiwan election sets off global tensions, prompting a cautious US approach amid Chinese interference. Analysts, while noting reduced immediate risks, delve into long-term concerns regarding the island’s future

In a recent post on the social media platform X, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry strongly criticized China for its “repeated interference” in Taiwan’s upcoming elections. The ministry urged Beijing to refrain from meddling in the political processes of other countries.

The U.S., anticipating potential tensions surrounding Taiwan’s election, has adopted a cautious approach. President Joe Biden is set to dispatch a delegation to Taiwan post-election, underscoring a commitment to bolster defense and trade cooperation. The Biden administration has maintained a vigilant stance despite increased dialogue with China.

Breaking from the traditional U.S. policy of ambiguity, Biden has stated that U.S. troops would defend Taiwan. His administration has agreed to supply weapons to Taipei, a departure from the island’s usual practice of purchasing such armaments.

Support for Taiwan is especially robust in Congress. Republican speaker Mike Johnson, following his two predecessors, promised to “help in the defense of Taiwan” in a pre-election meeting with Taiwan’s representative in Washington.

“We want to deter the Chinese Communist Party and any military provocation,” Johnson told him Tuesday.

A Biden administration official noted China’s actions as consistent with previous patterns during Taiwan’s elections. The complex geopolitical landscape, including China’s assertiveness, the situation in Hong Kong, and Russia’s actions in Ukraine, has led to a convergence of views among Taiwan’s leading candidates on the need for robust defenses.

Analysts suggest that the risk of conflict over Taiwan has diminished, attributing this to the easing of U.S.-China tensions and the cautious statements of Taiwan’s leadership. The Eurasia Group,  a leading risk consultancy firm, considers the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan by China in 2024 to be negligibly small. Despite this, the U.S. continues to express support for Taiwan, with Biden openly stating that U.S. troops would defend the island.

Longer-term concerns linger, with CIA Director Bill Burns suggesting China’s ambition to seize Taiwan by 2027. Experts argue that the U.S. must be clear in opposing Taiwan’s independence to reassure China. The election outcome may impact the delicate balance, with some members of Congress expressing concerns about potential Chinese meddling.
Source: AFP