European powers prepare 5-10 year plan to replace US in NATO

In a bid to ensure European security, several of Europe’s biggest military powers are drawing up plans to take on greater responsibility for the continent’s defense, amid concerns about the future of NATO and potential disengagement by the United States.

These discussions include a proposal for a gradual transfer of military duties from the U.S. to European capitals over the next five to 10 years.

The plans are being developed by the U.K., France, Germany, and the Nordic countries, according to four European officials involved in the talks.

The goal is to present a proposal to the U.S. government ahead of NATO’s annual leaders’ summit in The Hague in June.

The proposal would emphasize increased European defense spending and the expansion of military capabilities in an attempt to reduce reliance on the U.S., allowing it to focus more on Asia.

A managed shift from US leadership in NATO

The European powers’ discussions are fueled by fears of a potential unilateral U.S. withdrawal from NATO, a prospect raised by President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to weaken or exit the alliance. While U.S. diplomats have reassured European allies of their commitment to NATO, there remains unease about the future of U.S. involvement in Europe.

The U.S. currently plays a crucial role in European security, with its substantial defense spending, military presence in Europe, and nuclear deterrent committed to the continent’s defense.

The U.S. also provides military capabilities that European countries do not have, including air, naval, and troop bases, as well as 80,000 troops stationed in Europe.

Building European defense capabilities

Europe’s current defense spending and military capabilities are insufficient to fully replace the U.S.’s role in NATO.

However, the officials involved in the discussions believe it will take five to 10 years of increased spending to reach a level where European nations could assume greater responsibility.

This would include boosting military budgets and modernizing equipment to handle more of NATO’s defense tasks.

“We’re starting those talks, but it’s such a big task that many are overwhelmed by the scale of it,” said an official at the FT. “Increasing spending is the only play that we have: burden sharing and shifting the dial away from U.S. reliance.”

Concerns about US engagement in NATO

Despite reassurances from the U.S., many European capitals are concerned about a rapid reduction in American military presence or a withdrawal from shared NATO tasks.

Some countries have been hesitant to engage in discussions about shifting the burden for fear that it may prompt the U.S. to scale back its commitments more quickly.

“You need a deal with the Americans and it’s unclear if they will be willing to do it,” said another senior official. “Can you even trust them to hold to it?”

The ongoing discussions, led by France and the U.K., about forming a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and to boost European defense are seen as indicative of Europe’s desire to take more initiative on defense matters.

The role of NATO in European security

NATO officials argue that keeping the alliance intact, even with less or no U.S. involvement, is simpler than creating a new defense structure.

Recreating NATO’s existing military plans, command structure, and defense rules would be a significant challenge, and would likely require cooperation from countries like the U.K., Türkiye, and the Nordics, who already contribute to Europe’s defense.

Marion Messmer, senior research fellow for international security at Chatham House, noted that NATO’s existing structure is crucial to European security, even without the U.S. “There are aspects that would need to be replaced should the U.S. disengage,” Messmer said. “However, it provides a structure and infrastructure framework that Europeans are really familiar with.”