Global military drones surge as Türkiye leads market, report finds

A recent report by the Center for New American Security (CNAS) highlighted the rapid growth of global military drone transfers over the past three decades, with Türkiye and China emerging as dominant players in the market.

The CNAS Drone Proliferation Dataset, which tracks military-grade aerial drone transfers between 1995 and September 2023, shows significant increases in sales, particularly of armed drones and loitering munitions, often referred to as kamikaze drones.

The report, Swarms Over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan, was released in June 2024 by Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis and Molly Campbell.

It draws on the dataset to examine the strategic role of drones in ongoing conflicts and the competition between the United States and China.

Global shift in drone proliferation

The proliferation of military drones has accelerated dramatically since the late 1990s, with more state and non-state actors acquiring uncrewed systems.

The dominance once held by Israel and the United States in the drone market has diminished, as China, Türkiye and Iran have developed low-cost military drones and increasingly supplied them to other nations.

Türkiye has now overtaken China as the world’s largest supplier of military drones, thanks to its Bayraktar TB2 drones, which have been used effectively in conflicts in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine and all the rest of conflict zones.

In 2022, six new countries acquired military drones, all of which were armed Bayraktar TB2 drones from Türkiye.

Chinese drone sales peaked in 2014, but by 2021, Türkiye had surpassed China in drone exports, bolstered by quick delivery times and battlefield success stories.

Significant regional transfers of drones

Between 1995 and 2023, the dataset recorded 633 drone transfers, with nearly 40% of these transfers going to Europe.

The Middle East has also seen increased drone activity, driven by the Global War on Terror and resulting in 134 transfers during the last two decades.

On the African continent, drone proliferation has surged since 2020, with the number of transfers rising from an average of two per year (1995-2019) to nearly 13 per year (2020-2023).

Key suppliers and armed drone sales

The report reveals that the entrance of Türkiye and China into the global drone market has significantly contributed to the increase in armed drone transfers.

Despite reinterpreting the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in 2020, the United States has made fewer drone exports compared to its competitors.

Since 2018, Türkiye, China and the U.S. have made 69 combined sales of armed military drones, with Türkiye accounting for 65%, China for 26%, and the United States for 8%.

Growing role of loitering munitions

The report also highlights the growing role of loitering munitions in drone proliferation. While these drones, which are often referred to as kamikaze drones, have been around since the 1980s, they only gained international recognition after Azerbaijan used them successfully during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.

Türkiye, Iran, and the United States have all supplied large numbers of loitering munitions to various nations and non-state actors.

Notably, Iran has provided its Shahed and Ababil systems to groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The increasing availability of drones, particularly armed ones, suggests that these systems will play an ever more prominent role in future conflicts, with more state and non-state actors expected to employ military and commercial drones on the battlefield.