AK Party sees opportunity in Istanbul elections amid opposition disunity

Disunity among Türkiye’s opposition parties complicates Istanbul’s upcoming elections, tipping the balance in favor of President Erdogan’s AK Party, as polls suggest a tight race between incumbent Imamoglu and AK Party candidate Kurum

According to a recent Reuters article, disunity among Türkiye’s opposition parties is significantly bolstering the chances of President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party reclaiming Istanbul, as indicated by pollsters Metropoll, Aksoy Research, MAK, and Murat Gezici.

Five years ago, a significant political shift occurred when Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and his main opposition party, CHP, delivered a major setback to Erdogan in municipal elections. They gained control of Istanbul, which had been under AK Party rule for 25 years. 

However, Erdogan, the dominant figure in Turkish politics for nearly a quarter-century, successfully defeated a strong opposition challenge on May 28, 2023, and was selected as president for another term.

Because of the defeat, the opposition alliance dissolved. Nationalist Good Party (IYI Party – IP) and pro-Kurdish DEM Party have proposed their own candidates in the Istanbul elections that will take place on March 31.

As Istanbul is the largest city in Türkiye, the outcome of the upcoming Istanbul elections carries immense weight in shaping Imamoglu’s political future. He has been seen as a potential leader of the main opposition CHP and a potential future president.

Recent polls indicate a nail-biting race, with MAK polling this week showing Imamoglu with 41.5% support, just 1.5 points ahead of AK Party candidate Murat Kurum. Another poll by Murat Gezici suggests Kurum leading with 44.1% support, slightly ahead of Imamoglu’s 43.5%.

Ozer Sencar, chairman of Metropoll pollsters, draws attention to the extremely close race due to Istanbul’s significance.

Stiff competition for Istanbul

Sencar notes that the IYI Party and DEM Party’s decision to nominate their own candidates for Istanbul has challenged Imamoglu’s chances of claiming the city again. Both of these parties supported Imamoglu in the 2019 municipal elections.

According to Metropoll’s latest survey, the support for Imamoglu among Kurdish dropped to 32% from 35%. Similarly, support among IYI party voters fell to 45% from 64%.

“The greatest challenge for the opposition in Istanbul is the increasing fragmentation,” remarked Ertan Aksoy, head of Aksoy Research. This is also due to the newly elected leader of CHP and discontent within the party regarding the choice of election candidates.

Imamoglu focuses on traffic issues in the city, where 16 million live, and earthquake preparations within urban renewal. He has accused the government of hindering his efforts to deliver services in Istanbul since 2019. 

In his election campaign, Erdogan has highlighted the challenges faced by the opposition.

“The CHP’s political fatigue remains unchanged by any shift. Every new attempt only worsens the situation,” Erdogan emphasized in a recent rally.

Source: Reuters