Iran, YPG terrorist group seek unlikely alliance amid diminished influence in Syria

As Syria’s dynamics shift, key actors such as Iran and the YPG terrorist group, considered “losers” in the changing landscape, are forming unexpected alliances as their influence wanes.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Esmael Qaani met with Mazloum Abdi, the ringleader of the YPG, a PKK-affiliated terrorist organization, at the residence of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) leader Bafel Talabani in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.

The meeting highlights Iran’s diminished role in Syria and the YPG’s growing uncertainty following the potential U.S. withdrawal from the region.

Why it matters

This unusual alignment underscores the challenges faced by both Iran and the YPG as they navigate a region undergoing significant geopolitical shifts. Analysts believe that Iran’s setbacks in Syria and the possibility of a U.S. military withdrawal are leaving these actors scrambling for new strategies to maintain their relevance.

Details

Iran’s weakened position

• Iran’s influence in Syria relied heavily on Hezbollah and Shia militias from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan.
• The collapse of the Assad regime and subsequent shifts in power have eroded Iran’s ability to maintain its foothold in Syria or project power into Lebanon.
• Iran has lost access to 50,000 militia members and 551 bases in Syria, further diminishing its influence.

YPG’s precarious situation

• The YPG, which controls parts of northeast Syria, risks losing its stronghold if U.S. forces under President-elect Donald Trump withdraw.
• Mazloum Abdi’s meeting with Qaani reflects a desperate search for alternative alliances, exposing the YPG’s vulnerability.

Meeting’s venue and host

• The meeting was hosted by Talabani, a PUK leader known for his close ties to both Iran and the U.S.
• Talabani’s involvement underscores his intermediary role in facilitating talks between these factions.

Expert analysis

Iran’s dual-faced policies have always supported PKK operations. If Iran had genuinely cooperated with Türkiye, the PKK problem would not exist. Losing its bases and militias in Syria is disastrous for Iran, and a potential U.S. withdrawal will deepen its challenges.

Uluc Ozulker, retired ambassador

The YPG is trying to suggest that if the U.S. leaves, Iran will step in. However, any engagement between Iran and the YPG is likely short-term. Both sides view this as a relationship of convenience rather than a partnership.

Murat Aslan, SETA Senior Researcher, academician

Türkiye’s stance

Türkiye remains steadfast in its efforts to prevent any terrorist presence along its southern border.

Türkiye has repeatedly demonstrated its unwavering resolve to protect its sovereignty. If necessary, we can act suddenly and decisively.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan:

If expected measures against the YPG are not taken, Türkiye will act accordingly, including through military operations.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan

Alarm levels in Syria

The Syrian National Army (SNA) has significantly increased its military deployments in the Peace Spring Operation area, focusing on Ayn al-Arab, Raqqa and Hassakeh. SNA commander Abu Abdullah Muhammad confirmed that all fronts are on high alert, with heavy weapons and reinforcements deployed to critical areas.

Zoom out

The evolving dynamics in Syria expose the struggles of Iran and the YPG terrorist organization to maintain their footholds amid geopolitical shifts. With Türkiye’s firm stance and military readiness, any vacuum left by a U.S. withdrawal could lead to heightened competition and further destabilization in the region.