Hamas grapples with leadership void after Yahya Sinwar’s death: Who will succeed?

The death of Yahya Sinwar, the top leader of Hamas, has triggered a leadership crisis within the organization, sparking speculation over who will take the reins of the Palestinian resistance group.

Sinwar, long described as the mastermind behind the Al-Aqsa Flood operation launched on Oct. 7, 2023, against Israeli settlements near Gaza, is believed to have been killed by chance during a routine sweep by Israel, marking a significant loss for Hamas’ military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades.

Several prominent figures within Hamas are now viewed as potential successors, each with their own distinct influence and history within the organization. Here’s a closer look at these leading figures.

Muhammad Deif: Elusive commander

Muhammad Deif, the long-serving commander of Hamas’ military wing, remains at the top of Israel’s most-wanted list. Deif, who has survived seven Israeli assassination attempts spanning from 2001 to 2024, has cemented his reputation as both a tactician and a symbol of Palestinian resilience.

Deif’s survival is nothing short of extraordinary. He was severely injured in a 2002 Israeli helicopter strike that left him paralyzed, but he continues to lead from the shadows. He is best known for overseeing many of Hamas’ most ambitious military operations, including the capture of Israeli soldier Nachshon Wachsman in 1994, and his role in the development of Hamas’ arsenal, including rockets and tunnel warfare.

In 2023, Deif was widely credited as the architect behind Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, a large-scale attack involving hundreds of Hamas fighters crossing the border into Israel, taking civilians and soldiers hostage. Deif’s tactical genius and evasiveness have earned him the nickname “The Guest” for his ability to disappear and reappear only at critical moments in Hamas’ military campaigns.

While Deif’s deteriorating health may hinder him from assuming a more public leadership role, his influence as a strategic planner remains undeniable. Many within Hamas view him as an untouchable figure of resistance, whose survival alone is an act of defiance against Israel.

Marwan Issa: Shadowy right-hand man

Marwan Issa, the deputy commander of Al-Qassam Brigades, is another potential successor. Often referred to as “the man in the shadows,” Issa plays a key role in Hamas’ military operations, having overseen the development of the group’s military infrastructure, including its missile program and tunnel networks.

Issa, a close confidant of Deif, is a master of military tactics and logistical planning. His role became more prominent after the 2014 Gaza war when Israel intensified its efforts to eliminate Hamas’ leadership. Though Israeli forces claimed to have killed Issa in a March 2023 airstrike, Hamas has never confirmed his death, leaving his status shrouded in mystery.

Issa has been an integral part of Hamas since its early years and is seen as one of the principal architects of its modern-day military capabilities. He was arrested by Israeli forces during the First Intifada, spending five years in prison before his release in 1993. His involvement in the 2006 capture of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit further elevated his status within Hamas.

If alive, Issa could be seen as a natural choice to step into Sinwar’s shoes, given his long-standing role in the movement’s military operations and his close relationship with the outgoing leadership.

Muhammad Sinwar: Veteran leader and family connection

Muhammad Sinwar, the brother of Yahya Sinwar, is another candidate likely to rise to prominence within Hamas. He has been a central figure in the Al-Qassam Brigades since its inception and has survived numerous Israeli assassination attempts, including a targeted airstrike in 2021.

Muhammad Sinwar’s claim to fame comes from his involvement in the 2006 operation known as “The Disappearing Illusion,” where Hamas fighters infiltrated an Israeli military outpost, killing two soldiers and capturing Gilad Shalit. Shalit remained in Hamas custody for five years before being exchanged for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in 2011 – a historic victory for Hamas and a major propaganda coup.

The Sinwar family’s deep roots in Hamas’ military and political wings give Muhammad Sinwar a significant advantage in internal leadership dynamics. His reputation as a military strategist and his role in operations like Shalit’s capture makes him a strong candidate to succeed his brother.

Khalil al-Hayya: Diplomatic face of Hamas

Khalil al-Hayya, a key political figure within Hamas, has been Yahya Sinwar’s deputy and could emerge as the new face of the movement. Unlike many of his contemporaries, al-Hayya is better known for his diplomatic efforts, including his role in indirect negotiations with Israel.

In February 2024, al-Hayya led a delegation to Egypt to negotiate a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel, demonstrating his importance in the political wing of the group. Al-Hayya has also survived several Israeli assassination attempts, including one in 2007 that killed several members of his family.

While al-Hayya’s strength lies in his political acumen, he has maintained strong ties with Hamas’ military leadership, making him a potential compromise candidate to lead the organization through this transitional period.

Khaled Meshaal: Elder statesman

Khaled Meshaal, the former leader of Hamas’ political bureau, remains one of the most influential figures within the organization. Meshaal led Hamas for over two decades, from 1996 until 2017, steering the group through multiple Israeli operations and international crises.

Meshaal, who survived a 1997 assassination attempt by Israel’s Mossad in Jordan, now resides in Qatar. He remains a powerful voice within Hamas, particularly in terms of international diplomacy. Although he stepped down from formal leadership in 2017, Meshaal is still viewed as an elder statesman who could act as a unifying figure for Hamas in the wake of Sinwar’s death.

While less involved in day-to-day military operations, Meshaal’s experience in navigating international politics could prove invaluable as Hamas looks to consolidate power and seek international support.

Mysterious figures and uncertain futures

In addition to these well-known leaders, several other figures within Hamas’ ranks, such as Mahmoud al-Zahar, Mohammed Abu Shamala, and Rouhi Mushtaha, remain potential candidates for leadership.

Al-Zahar, one of Hamas’ most hardline figures, has maintained a low profile since the start of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and his whereabouts are currently unknown. Mushtaha, a close associate of Yahya Sinwar, has also been a key figure in Hamas’ military and security operations, but there is no official word on his current status.

Leadership void amid rising tensions

The loss of Yahya Sinwar marks a significant moment for Hamas, potentially altering the balance of power within the organization at a time when tensions with Israel are at an all-time high.

Sinwar’s death has been a blow to both the political and military wings of the organization. His leadership, characterized by pragmatism and an ability to straddle the worlds of politics and armed resistance, has been crucial to Hamas’ survival in recent years.

As Hamas looks to its future, the question remains whether its next leader will continue Sinwar’s dual strategy of diplomacy and military action or pursue a more hardline approach. Whoever emerges as the new leader will inherit a movement that remains central to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with its next moves being closely watched by both its allies and adversaries.