From air to Earth: Türkiye’s countdown to Spring with 3 ‘cemres’

Istanbul Technical University’s Mikdat Kadioglu explains that Turkish folklore of spring arriving with three fireballs called cemres – warming air, water, and earth – has no equivalent in modern meteorology

EXCLUSIVE BY KEVSER ERBAY — Spring doesn’t arrive all at once in Turkish folklore; it is heralded by a series of natural events known as the cemres. Cemres are three fireballs that come from heaven to warm Earth at the end of winter.

Each cemre happens a week apart and heats one element of nature. First, a cemre falls into the air, then into the water and finally into the earth. These events, occurring in weekly intervals, complete a 21-day cycle, a three-week journey that paves the way for spring’s arrival.

Birds, sensing the falling of the first cemre, begin to sing as if spring has already arrived. However, it typically takes another three weeks for us humans to perceive the full bloom of spring. This cycle not only marks the seasonal transition but also connects us to the rhythms of nature.

I recently had the opportunity to interview Dr. Mikdat Kadioglu, head of the Department of Meteorological Engineering at Istanbul Technical University, to gain a scientific perspective on the phenomenon of cemre.

Kadioglu responded to the question of whether there is a scientific equivalent to the concept of cemre in climate science. “In meteorology or climate science, there is no concept that corresponds directly to ‘cemre,'” Kadioglu said.

When asked if there was a direct scientific equivalent to cemre in climate science, Kadioglu said, “In meteorology or climate science, there is no concept that corresponds directly to cemre.”

“It is entirely a cultural belief and a traditional form of observation associated with natural events.” he added, emphasizing that cemre is more of a cultural phenomenon than one with a scientific basis.

“Meteorologically, the beginning of spring is generally determined by seasonal factors, such as temperature and the duration of sunlight,” he said, adding that while the concept of time does not have a place in modern meteorology, the onset of spring is determined through scientific methods.

Kadioglu continued, “In a scientific sense, the soil, water, and air can warm up,” indicating a sequence that aligns with scientific observations.

Addressing the potential impact of climate change on the timing of cemre, Kadioglu noted, “Climate change can influence seasonal patterns due to changes in the atmosphere and sea levels. Traditionally, cemre falls three times in March, signaling the arrival of spring. However, under the effects of climate change, we might observe shifts in these seasonal events.”

He also pointed out that climate change could influence the timing of seasons by affecting factors such as temperature, precipitation amounts, and wind patterns, thereby potentially altering the timing of cemre.

Kadioglu emphasized the complexity of climate change and the challenges in predicting future changes accurately. “Scientists are continuing their research to better understand and forecast these shifts,” he said, stressing the ongoing efforts to grasp climate change’s effects on both traditional and scientific seasonal indicators.

Cemre, according to the Turkish dictionary, refers to a live ember or a piece of fire. Additionally, it holds a symbolic significance, representing the gradual rise in temperature during February and a specific act performed during the Islamic pilgrimage in Mecca.

The first cemre hits around Feb. 19-20, warming the air and marking the first sign of Spring’s arrival. This is followed by the second cemre that warms the water around Feb. 26-27 and the third warms the ground around March 5-6.