Türkiye-Syria maritime deal could reshape eastern Mediterranean: Expert

A potential maritime agreement between Syria and Türkiye could mark a historic opportunity for Türkiye. Retired Admiral Cihat Yayci, who played a key role in the maritime boundary agreement between Türkiye and Libya, stated that “whoever agrees with Ankara wins,” and suggested the Sevilla map would become obsolete as a result.

Recent developments in the Ankara-Damascus relationship have raised concerns, particularly in Greek Cyprus and the European Union, with attention now focused on the possibility of a deal between the newly formed Syrian government and Türkiye.

Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu’s announcement that Türkiye is working toward an agreement with Syria on maritime jurisdiction is seen as a move that could dramatically shift the regional balance of power.

Retired Admiral Cihat Yayci, the architect of the Türkiye-Libya maritime agreement, shared his insights on the potential exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement with Syria.

Yayci emphasized that Türkiye and Syria share a coastline and argued that the agreement should not simply be a maritime boundary deal. Instead, it should be based on the core principles of international maritime law: fairness, geographical advantage, non-enclosure, proportionality and encirclement.

A win-win agreement for both countries

Yayci believes such an agreement would benefit both countries under a “win-win” principle. He noted that Syria would gain approximately 1,604 square kilometers of maritime territory—around 20% more than indicated by the Sevilla map created by Greek Cyprus. Türkiye would gain a maritime area roughly the size of Cyprus, totaling 7,660 square kilometers. Meanwhile, Greek Cyprus would lose at least 10,000 square kilometers of maritime territory.

Yayci argued that the Sevilla map, which currently claims extensive maritime zones for Greek Cyprus, would be rendered invalid in the eastern Mediterranean if this agreement were to go forward.

De facto recognition of TRNC

Yayci also suggested that if the agreement between Türkiye and Syria includes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), it would lead to its “de facto” recognition, a significant political development. He pointed out that countries that have signed maritime agreements with Türkiye have gained far more maritime territory than those who have signed agreements with Greece and Greek Cyprus, which he claims have no legitimate rights to the region.

In contrast to Greece and Greek Cyprus, Yayci highlighted that countries such as Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, and Syria have gained significant maritime territory through agreements with Türkiye. For instance, Libya gained 16,700 square kilometers, Egypt gained 21,303 square kilometers, and Syria 1,604 square kilometers.

Greece’s objections: Legal challenge

Yayci addressed Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ recent comments, in which he referred to the potential maritime agreement between Syria and Türkiye as a “nightmare scenario” for Hellenism, fearing it would undermine Greece’s regional interests. Yayci pointed out that Greece has no direct territorial or maritime connection to Syria, questioning why it should have a say in such an agreement.

He criticized Greece for consistently violating international law and distorting it to fit its own interests, labeling this as a typical behavior of the Greek state. Yayci argued that Greece’s objections to Türkiye’s agreements with regional neighbors are based on legal double standards.

If an agreement between Türkiye and Syria is finalized, it could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean, leading to a major shift in the region’s maritime boundaries.