Türkiye is a key partner for the EU, beyond migration
Von der Leyen meets Erdogan in Ankara. (Collage prepared by Mehmet Akbas)
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a critical meeting in Ankara to address Türkiye-EU cooperation in light of evolving regional challenges, particularly in Syria on Wednesday.
The leaders discussed Türkiye’s expectation of substantial EU support for the reconstruction of Syria and the facilitation of Syrian refugee returns. Von der Leyen emphasized the importance of an inclusive and stable transition in Syria while announcing a €1 billion fund for education and healthcare for Syrian refugees in Türkiye.
Both leaders highlighted the need for deeper cooperation on regional stability, counterterrorism, and migration management, with Erdogan reiterating Türkiye’s commitment to addressing security threats and pushing for more EU engagement in rebuilding efforts.
Beyond Syria, the talks underscored Türkiye’s strategic role in EU relations, with discussions on modernizing the Customs Union and enhancing economic ties. While von der Leyen avoided mention of Türkiye’s stalled EU accession process, Erdogan called for a renewed vision from Brussels, urging progress on lifting sanctions, visa liberalization, and advancing bilateral cooperation.
Both sides recognized the importance of a stronger institutional partnership to address mutual concerns and create a more sustainable foundation for cooperation in the region.
Notably, the EU Commission President faced criticism for her delayed communication with Türkiye during the critical days when events in Syria were unfolding. Critics pointed not only to her late response and misplaced priorities but also to the EU’s lack of an active role in shaping on-the-ground discourse during the escalating crisis.
The nature of the relations
While human rights and the rule of law are often highlighted as points of contention, these issues seem to have been used more than instruments to stall or constrain Türkiye’s EU accession prospects—not because Türkiye is flawless in these areas, but because of the EU’s established approach toward other non-democratic states. This has created an environment of mutual frustration and an erosion of trust, turning dialogue into transactional and sectoral engagements rather than a comprehensive partnership or dialogue, according to Valeria Giannotta, an Italian scholar specializing in Turkish politics and international relations, speaking exclusively to Türkiye Today.
The new paradigm
“The 2016 Syrian migrant agreement is a clear example of this shift,” noted the current Scientific Director of the CeSPI Observatory Türkiye. “Türkiye agreed to host Syrian refugees in exchange for financial support, visa liberalization for its citizens, and the modernization of the Customs Union. Yet, most promises—beyond financial aid—remain unfulfilled.”
This transactional approach, Giannotta emphasized, undermines the fundamental principles of the accession process. “Türkiye is still a candidate state, but the EU treats it as a third country. This erodes the moral and legal foundation of their relationship.”
Turkish main opposition party CHP Deputy Chairperson for Foreign Policy Ilhan Uzgel was among the ones who criticized von der Leyen’s statement, saying, “Türkiye’s importance cannot be reduced to merely being a migration shield for Europe.”
Economic interdependence
Despite political stagnation, economic ties between Türkiye and the EU remain robust. “Türkiye is the EU’s fifth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade volumes reaching €206.5 billion in 2023,” Giannotta stated. “From Ankara’s perspective, the EU is the primary destination for its exports, the most important source of imports, and a key provider of foreign direct investment.”
She noted that the 1996 Customs Union initially played a vital role in integrating Türkiye into European supply chains. However, “The Customs Union now requires modernization to reflect changes in the global market. Unfortunately, this update, like many other aspects of EU-Türkiye relations, remains stalled.”
Visa liberalization, broader challenges
Visa liberalization for Turkish citizens, long seen as a tangible benefit of EU engagement, remains an unresolved issue. Giannotta remarked: “Paradoxically, obtaining a visa to the Schengen area has become more complicated, not easier. This illustrates the broader stagnation in EU-Türkiye relations.”
The recent European Council meeting, she added, “disappointed expectations by focusing on the Cyprus issue rather than making substantive moves to improve EU-Türkiye ties. This approach reflects a lack of political courage and a shortsighted view of Türkiye’s importance to Europe.”
Security, defense industry, shared goals
The strategic importance of Türkiye to Europe’s security and defense has become increasingly evident in recent years, particularly as geopolitical dynamics shift. Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House, highlights Türkiye’s critical role, speaking on the record with Türkiye Today: “Türkiye is the largest military force in NATO in Europe and has made significant advancements in its military-industrial complex, especially in drone technology. This makes Türkiye a natural partner for Europe in the defense sector.”
Ash believes there is significant potential for closer collaboration nowadays, especially given the possibility of reduced U.S. defense commitments under another Trump presidency. “Europe has to step up, and Türkiye offers a valuable partnership in this context,” he emphasized.
A deeper strategic relationship could bridge gaps in European defense capabilities while also advancing Türkiye’s economic integration through initiatives like a modernized Customs Union.
Senior sovereign strategists also pointed to the mutual threats faced by Europe and Türkiye, particularly from Russia. “A Russian victory in Ukraine would dominate the Black Sea and take over Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, which would be bad news for both Europe and Türkiye. Their interests align in ensuring that Russia does not achieve its objectives in Ukraine,” he noted.
Cooperation between Türkiye and Ukraine, such as the supply of drone engines from Ukraine, further illustrates how Türkiye’s defense industry intersects with European strategic interests.
Furthermore, Türkiye’s ability to contribute to regional stability offers an additional dimension to its partnership with Europe. Ash remarked, “Europe’s interest in Syria is avoiding another migrant crisis. If Türkiye can present a solution for a more stable Syria, where there’s less pressure from migrants and even a reversal with Syrians returning, that’s a win for the EU.”
A call for strategic vision
The EU’s approach to Türkiye continues to fall short of the strategic engagement needed to address shared challenges and opportunities. Valeria Giannotta emphasized that “Ursula von der Leyen underestimates the need to resume high-level dialogue and start a structured approach on an equal and fair basis.”
Framing Türkiye as a ‘key partner’ must also account for Ankara’s significant role in European defense.
Valeria Giannotta
“In the Russian-Ukrainian war, Türkiye has acted for European security and as a mediator between the parties, filling the void left by the European diplomatic approach,” Giannotta noted.
Türkiye’s advancements in its defense sector, the shifting global context, and changes in the Middle East underscore the need for the EU to reflect on its role in defense, security, and influence.
Giannotta argued that Europe’s narrow focus on migration containment and economic interests overlooks the broader historical and strategic dimensions of EU-Türkiye relations. She criticized von der Leyen’s approach, describing her statements as “dry” and indicative of a “serious lack of political and strategic vision.”
A more comprehensive and visionary strategy is essential to move beyond an operational framework that compartmentalizes relations with Ankara. Instead, the EU must engage Türkiye as a vital partner whose contributions to regional stability and security are indispensable to Europe’s long-term interests.
