Is nuclear armed-Türkiye imperative for regional stability?

As a nation surrounded by wars, including unreliable treaty allies, Türkiye has fortified attitudes of its desire to pursue a strong nuclear policy.

Nuclear capacity possessing Israel’s current behavior with no Western veto, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and the escalating war in Ukraine are likely to amplify Türkiye’s nuclear targets as a side effect.

Türkiye remains one of five countries to host American nuclear weapons under a NATO agreement at the Incirlik Air Base in Adana since 1959. Yet, approximately two dozen B61 nuclear warheads remain under lock and key, with a strict requirement of both American and Turkish military officials to activate.

A coup attempt in 2016 has been subtly linked to Washington’s doing across Ankara corridors, translating into a complete overhaul and reassessment of the Turkish defense and security apparatus. That deadly event saw the death of 250 Turkish citizens, the near murder of its democratically elected leader, and a lingering collective trauma. Ask any urban dweller in Türkiye and they will quickly recall their experience of that night.

Significant unease also remains over Israeli nuclear weapons at a time of heightened regional insecurity. Ankara, and much of the world despite the West, has come to terms that it is Tel Aviv who’s avoiding a much-needed and lasting peace agreement. Although the Turkish business community reportedly continues to quietly keep trade channels open with Israel, the inability to stop the situation in Gaza and now Lebanon further escalates institutional build-up assessments.

Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant Akkuyu

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan began iterations of nuclear weapons back in September 2019, stating, “Some countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, not one or two. But (they say) we can’t have them. This, I cannot accept.” On the backdrop is the pending launch of Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant Akkuyu in Mersin.

Despite the agreement being signed in 2010 with Russia’s Rosatom, the first of four pending nuclear reactors only began being built in 2018. Again, the coup attempt led to a strong rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow.

This resulted in the actual construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant as well as the procurement of the S-400 missile defense system.

Russia is currently providing higher education in nuclear physics to dozens of Turkish students. Following the completion of the $25 billion project and 20-years operation of Rosatom, the facility will transfer to full Turkish control. It will cover 10% of Türkiye’s domestic energy needs once fully operational in 2028 and drastically affect the trade deficit to the positive.

Türkiye is planning a second and third nuclear power plant – one for the Black Sea in Sinop and another to be built on the outskirts of Istanbul.

Playing catch-up for permanent seat

In many ways, Ankara is playing catch-up as there are already 416 nuclear reactors across 32 countries – with 30 new countries launching nuclear programs.

Developing economies globally have been, albeit slowly, catching up to the West. Likewise, Ankara tried its immediate treaty allies to help in developing its own nuclear program. However, those talks have reached a dead-end.

Nuclear power is believed to be a steppingstone for procuring nuclear warheads. Some nine countries today – the United States, Russia, France, China, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea – possess these weapons.

The U.N.’s Permanent Security Council consists of five nations, all with nuclear capacity.

Ankara further believes that this technology will enable its self-proclaimed bid for a permanent seat at that table.

Three countries are rumored to hold the keys to this technology – Niger, Somalia and Pakistan. High-level Turkish cabinet delegations have completed the bilateral diplomatic traffic. Niger with its high-quality uranium, Somalia for testing with its opening to the Indian Ocean and Pakistan as the nation, appears to be the most likely candidate to transfer technology.

As uncertainty increases across the entire region, with Russia and Israel possessing nuclear weapons and Iran considering the same, it is only a matter of time before we hear about progress in Türkiye’s nuclear program.