Death toll in Gaza 40% higher than reported, Lancet study finds
A picture taken from the southern city of Sterod shows smoke rising above destroyed buildings in the northern Gaza Strip during an Israeli army bombardment on January 5, 2025. (AFP Photo)
A study published in the Lancet medical journal estimated that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Palestine conflict is approximately 40% higher than the official figures reported by Gaza’s Health Ministry.
The analysis titled “Traumatic injury mortality in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024: a capture-recapture analysis” estimates 64,260 deaths from traumatic injuries by the end of June 2024, compared to the ministry’s reported 37,877 deaths.
Study reveals significant underreporting
The peer-reviewed study, conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions, used a statistical method known as capture-recapture analysis.
This method cross-referenced data from three sources: Gaza’s Health Ministry, an online reporting tool for families, and social media obituaries.
The study’s lead author, Zeina Jamaluddine, explained the process: “We only included individuals confirmed deceased by their relatives or hospital records. By analyzing overlaps between data sources, we calculated a total estimate of the population killed.”
Researchers concluded there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths, with a best estimate of 64,260. This figure accounts for 2.9% of Gaza’s prewar population of approximately 2.3 million.
Disproportionate impact on vulnerable groups
The study highlighted that 59.1% of those killed were women, children and individuals over the age of 65. It did not provide an estimate for Palestinian combatants among the casualties.
The death toll includes only those killed by traumatic injuries and does not account for deaths from lack of health care, malnutrition, or those buried under rubble.
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics estimates an additional 11,000 individuals remain missing and presumed dead.
Challenges to data accuracy
The study acknowledged the difficulty of obtaining accurate casualty figures due to the ongoing conflict and damage to Gaza‘s health care infrastructure.
It noted that Gaza’s Health Ministry had previously maintained reliable electronic death records but that its capacity had deteriorated under sustained military action.
The Israeli military campaign has included strikes on hospitals and disruptions to digital communications, which Israel attributes to Hamas using medical facilities for military purposes—an accusation the group denies.
United Nations Human Rights Office’s recent “Thematic Report: Attacks on hospitals during the escalation of hostilities in Gaza” report has also raised serious concerns regarding Israel’s compliance with international humanitarian law during military operations in Gaza between Oct. 12, 2023, and June 30, 2024.
The document highlights repeated attacks on hospitals and medical personnel, raising the possibility of war crimes and crimes against humanity. According to the report, at least 136 strikes targeted 27 hospitals and 12 medical facilities during the documented period. These attacks resulted in significant casualties among doctors, nurses, and civilians while causing severe damage or destruction to critical infrastructure.
Israeli response to study findings
A senior Israeli official commented on the study, stating that Israeli forces take allegedly extensive precautions to minimize civilian casualties.
“No other army in the world has taken such wide-ranging measures, including advance warnings and establishing safe zones. The figures in this report do not reflect the situation on the ground,” the official said.
Despite the statement from the Israeli official, the images from Gaza clearly show the extent of the destruction.
Statistical method validated by experts
Capture-recapture analysis, the method used in the study, has been widely employed in estimating conflict death tolls in regions such as Kosovo, Peru, and Colombia. Patrick Ball, a statistician from the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, praised the methodology, calling the estimate “good and well-supported.”
However, the researchers acknowledged potential overestimates due to the inclusion of non-traumatic deaths in hospital lists. Kevin McConway, an applied statistics professor at the Open University, noted that while uncertainty is inevitable in such analyses, the researchers’ multi-faceted approach was “admirable.”
