Who’s who? Joseph Aoun, ex-commander and newly elected president of Lebanon

Lebanon‘s political landscape has taken a significant turn with the election of Joseph Aoun as president, following nearly two years of political deadlock. Securing 99 votes in the 128-member parliament, his presidency is the result of a delicate compromise between local Sunni factions and Shia Amal Movement along with international actors, including the United States, Saudi Arabia, and France. His ascent comes at a time when Lebanon faces compounded challenges of economic collapse, regional instability, and the persistent influence of Hezbollah.

The election was a pivotal moment, with backing from Sunni MPs tied to Saudi Arabia, centrist and liberal legislators, and the largest parliamentary bloc, the Lebanese Forces Party. As Lebanese researcher and Middle Eastern affairs specialist Joe Hammoura explains, “Aoun was primarily supported by the United States and Saudi Arabia, with secondary backing from France and Qatar.” This international endorsement underscores the geopolitical stakes in Lebanon’s future.

The priorities on his agenda are set to make waves in the Middle East.

Balancing Hezbollah’s influence

Aoun’s military background, marked by neutrality and institutional reform, positions him uniquely to address Lebanon’s entrenched sectarian and geopolitical challenges. However, Hezbollah remains a critical factor in the equation. For years, the Iranian-backed Shia group held significant sway in Lebanon’s political landscape. Aoun’s presidency comes as Hezbollah faces setbacks, including a weakened position following its conflict with Israel and the declining influence of its regional allies, Iran and Syria.

Hezbollah initially opposed Aoun’s candidacy, favoring Suleiman Frangieh, who ultimately withdrew and endorsed Aoun yesterday. Despite this, Hammoura highlights the group’s diminished leverage, noting, “Hezbollah currently lacks the strength to oppose any international or even local decision. It is now compelled to fulfill its commitments, including surrendering its weapons to the Lebanese state.”

Aoun’s stance on Hezbollah is nuanced. While emphasizing the Lebanese state’s role in liberating occupied territories, he supports implementing UN Resolution 1701, which calls for Hezbollah to cease hostilities against Israel. This approach aligns with his broader goal of consolidating military power under state control, a move that could challenge Hezbollah’s influence without provoking outright confrontation.

Caught between the threat of another war with Israel and the pressure of U.S. and Saudi intervention opposing its current status, as well as the absence of Iranian and Syrian support, “Hezbollah faces difficult choices. It is now compelled to fulfill its commitments, including surrendering its weapons to the Lebanese state, in accordance with the ceasefire agreement it had previously agreed to,” notes the expert.

Joseph Aoun’s stance on Israel

For some in the Middle East, the stance of a political figure on Israel is determinant, but Aoun’s presidency brings a recalibrated approach to Lebanon’s delicate relationship with Israel. As a native of southern Lebanon, he is acutely aware of the complexities of the relations. In his inaugural speech, Aoun reaffirmed his commitment to the “1949 Armistice Agreement,” advocating for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory. However he also underscored that liberating occupied land is the exclusive responsibility of the Lebanese state “whether through military or diplomatic means,” signaling a departure from reliance on Hezbollah’s armed resistance by directly mentioning it.

His stance aligns with international efforts to stabilize the region but poses a significant challenge domestically.

Tackling Lebanon’s Economic Crisis

Beyond security concerns, Aoun faces the daunting task of revitalizing Lebanon’s economy. The nation has suffered a severe contraction since 2019, with poverty and unemployment reaching unprecedented levels. The World Bank estimates the cost of Lebanon’s crises at over $8.5 billion, underscoring the urgency of fiscal reform and international assistance.

Economic recovery will require Aoun to secure foreign aid while implementing structural reforms to combat corruption and restore public trust. Hammoura emphasizes the importance of these measures, noting, “Aoun’s supporters believe he can work to combat corruption, centralize weapons under state control, and implement international resolutions.”

Now those reforms and the international support that helped him to platform there will be the hope of economic recovery.

Engagement with Syria and the refugee crisis

Aoun’s presidency also hinges on redefining Lebanon’s relationship with Syria. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has left a power vacuum that Lebanon must use its limited resources carefully to not further destabilize. Key priorities include controlling cross-border smuggling and addressing the refugee crisis, as Lebanon hosts one of the largest populations of displaced Syrians.

Hammoura outlines Aoun’s initial steps, explaining, “He is focused on engaging with the new leadership in Syria to address issues such as controlling smuggling across the Lebanon-Syria border and facilitating the return of refugees to Syria.” Balancing humanitarian concerns with domestic pressures for repatriation will test Aoun’s ability to mediate between competing interests.

A Military Leader in a Political Role

Joseph Aoun’s ascent from army commander to president is grounded in a career marked by crisis leadership and strategic pragmatism. Trained in Lebanon, France, and the United States, Aoun’s expertise spans counter-terrorism, military strategy, and international relations. His tenure as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces earned him a reputation for professionalism, neutrality, and effective crisis management.

His leadership during pivotal moments, such as the 2017 Fajr al-Joroud campaign against ISIS affiliates, showcased his ability to command under pressure and secure significant victories for Lebanon’s security, along with his unnumbered medal and awards.

During the 2019 economic collapse, Aoun implemented unconventional measures to sustain the armed forces, including permitting soldiers to take on civilian jobs. His leadership during the 2020 Beirut Port explosion, where he coordinated rescue and recovery efforts, further demonstrated his ability to navigate complex crises.

Hope management

Joseph Aoun’s election marks a critical juncture for Lebanon. His leadership will be defined by his ability to balance internal and external pressures, from managing Hezbollah’s influence to addressing economic and social reforms. With international backing and a reputation for professionalism, Aoun seemingly has the potential to steer Lebanon toward relative stability. However, the challenges Lebanon faces—sectarian divisions, economic collapse, and regional dynamics—are formidable.