Trump’s return pushes EU to sidelines in Iran nuclear talks

U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to power has effectively marginalized European influence in Iran’s nuclear negotiations, with E.U. powers now relegated to observer status in diplomatic efforts to contain Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.

“The Europeans seem doubly trapped, on the one hand because they are excluded from current negotiations and restricted to the role of commentators,” explains David Khalfa of the Jean-Jaures Foundation in Paris. “On the other hand because they cannot afford to torpedo the chances of a new agreement, even if it is American-Iranian.”

Khalfa points directly to Trump’s role in this diplomatic shift, noting there is little chance of Europeans returning to center stage “because of Trump’s hostility to Europe.”

Trump sidelines key guarantors of 2015 nuclear accord

This development marks a stark reversal for Britain, France and Germany, who were key guarantors of the landmark 2015 nuclear accord before Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States in 2018, famously calling it “the worst deal ever.”

“It’s a pity the Europeans, who started this diplomatic process 22 years ago and were playing a leading role in it, played their hand so poorly,” commented Ali Vaez, head of the Crisis Group think tank’s Iran project.

The European trio now finds itself largely sidelined despite holding four rounds of talks between October and February. Their diminished role comes as U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi warned Wednesday that Iran is “not far” from possessing a nuclear bomb, despite Tehran’s consistent denials.

Experts suggest Europe mishandled the aftermath of Trump’s 2018 withdrawal. According to Thierry Coville, a researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris, “The Iranians, who had wanted to stay in the accord, asked the Europeans to help by maintaining economic exchanges despite U.S. sanctions.”

However, European companies fled the Iranian market due to fears of U.S. penalties, severely damaging European credibility. Now, as a second round of U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Oman approaches in Rome on Saturday, Europe can only support from the sidelines.

Some analysts believe Iran sees advantages in direct negotiations with Trump. “Iran probably believes that Trump has weight and so it is better to make an accord with him that could be sustainable,” noted Coville.