Trump floats Ukraine’s fate as administration crafts new war strategy

The Trump administration is crafting a multi-pronged approach to Ukraine that includes pushing European allies to purchase American weapons for Kyiv while simultaneously exploring paths to end the nearly three-year conflict, according to officials and recent statements from key figures.

In a striking comment that raised eyebrows in diplomatic circles, President Donald Trump suggested Ukraine’s future sovereignty remains uncertain. “They may make a deal; they may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday,” Trump told Fox News in an interview that aired Monday.

The administration’s strategy appears to balance military support through European purchases with economic interests, including a proposed deal for access to Ukraine’s mineral resources. “We are going to have all this money in there, and I say I want it back,” Trump said, citing discussions about securing “$500 billion worth of rare earth” minerals from Ukraine.

The diplomatic push comes at a critical moment, with Vice President J.D. Vance scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Munich Security Conference this Friday. Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, is set to arrive in Ukraine on Feb. 20, just days before the war’s third anniversary.

Tensions rise as Moscow, Kyiv draw hard lines on peace terms

European weapons purchases could offer a solution to the administration’s desire to maintain support for Ukraine without additional U.S. spending. “The Europeans have to own this conflict going forward,” National Security Adviser Mike Waltz told NBC News.

However, significant obstacles remain. Zelenskyy is demanding robust security guarantees, while Moscow insists Ukraine must abandon NATO aspirations and withdraw from contested territories. “Real peace and effective security guarantees” are essential, Zelenskyy said Monday in a video address.

The situation on the ground remains dire. Russia has captured several settlements in the Donetsk region, while continuing strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure have forced emergency power restrictions, according to Ukrainian officials.

Speaking to Reuters, Kellogg was circumspect about specific plans but acknowledged, “The U.S. always likes selling weapons made in America because it strengthens our economy.” He emphasized that previously approved weapons shipments continue to flow into Ukraine.

The success of any peace initiative may hinge on finding common ground between seemingly irreconcilable positions.

Russia has claimed annexation of five Ukrainian regions, while Zelenskyy has rejected territorial concessions, though he has suggested diplomatic solutions might be needed for some areas.