Russian ruble, Moscow stocks rally ahead of Trump-Putin talks

The Russian ruble and the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) continue to strengthen amid ongoing positive engagements between Russia and the U.S. regarding potential peace talks for the war in Ukraine.

At the market’s opening, the MOEX index rose 1.71%, surpassing 3,249 points, while the dollar-denominated RTS index climbed 1.71% to exceed 1,196 points.

The Russian ruble gained 1.2% against the U.S. dollar, pushing the USD/RUB exchange rate below 84 for the first time since August 2024.

Market optimism surges ahead of Trump-Putin call

Market gains were largely driven by growing optimism ahead of a scheduled phone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump announced on Tuesday that he would hold a phone call with Putin, while the Russian president recently signaled support for a cease-fire in Ukraine.

Speaking about the upcoming call, Trump said Sunday, “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.”

Meanwhile, on Friday, Putin emphasized Russia’s openness to diplomatic solutions, stating that Moscow maintains a constructive approach to cease-fire discussions.

Western companies eye return to Russia

The ruble’s appreciation this year is largely driven by expectations of improving U.S.-Russia relations. Additionally, Western media have reported that several major corporations may be considering a return to the Russian market.

Speculation that some sanctions against Russia could be eased has further fueled investor interest in Russian assets.

However, analysts at BCS brokerage warned that the ruble may be nearing its peak. “Most of the ruble’s positive drivers appear to be fading,” they noted, adding that foreign currency inflows are slowing while imports are expected to rise in the coming weeks.

The ruble’s strength could also influence the central bank’s upcoming policy decision. The Bank of Russia is set to review interest rates on March 21, with the key rate currently standing at 21%.