NATO has 3 to 4 years to strengthen military capabilities: SACT Admiral

NATO has a critical window of three to four years to enhance its military capabilities before facing a more urgent security crisis, according to Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) Admiral Pierre Vandier.

Speaking at the Paris Defence & Strategy Forum, Vandier emphasized the growing sense of urgency within the alliance, driven by a deteriorating security environment and the need for accelerated military transformation.

Urgency in NATO’s military planning

“The problem is that time is running out,” Vandier said, highlighting NATO’s intensified efforts to modernize its forces.

The alliance’s defense planning process (NDPP), which allocates capability targets among member states, has been accelerated.

Previously scheduled for October, the next phase of the NDPP is now set to be presented next month.

“Today, we have 80% acceptance of the capability targets from 32 nations. Even those who were traditionally reluctant have agreed,” Vandier stated, adding that this progress should lead to a finalized plan at NATO’s June summit in The Hague.

Each NDPP cycle spans four years, with the current phase preparing for the 2027 political directive.

While nations are not bound by a strict deadline for adopting capability targets, Vandier stressed that the alliance has only a three- to four-year window to act before the urgency intensifies further.

Challenges in closing capability gap

NATO members face a significant challenge in meeting their capability targets. According to Vandier:

• In the previous cycle, 30% of capability targets remained unfulfilled.
• The current cycle adds another 30% to the requirements.
• Despite increased efforts since 2022, a substantial capability gap remains.

“We are at a point where everything matters, and we lack everything,” he said.

However, Vandier warned against stockpiling basic munitions, instead advocating for the acquisition of “sovereignty tools”—key enabling technologies necessary for modern warfare.

Strengthening NATO’s offensive capabilities

Since February 2022, NATO’s traditionally defensive posture has proven insufficient for deterrence. “If you don’t have offensive capabilities today, you are not engaging in deterrence,” Vandier warned.

One of the most critical deficiencies, according to SACT, is Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD)—ground-based air defense systems such as MAMBA and Crotale. “We have a considerable gap; we cannot even adequately protect our deployed forces,” he stated.

Additionally, NATO must prepare for a “digital warfare” scenario, where command systems could become primary targets. The alliance is investing in data processing capabilities and artificial intelligence, which will play a crucial role in future security operations.

Europe’s role in NATO’s defense strategy

A key concern is NATO’s reliance on U.S. long-range strike capabilities, such as ATACMS missiles launched from HIMARS systems, recently acquired by several European nations. While the U.S. has committed to the latest capability targets, uncertainty remains over its future force posture in Europe.

“We have relied on the American security umbrella for too long,” Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto stated at a recent E5 meeting—a coalition of the five largest European military powers. European nations are now pushing for greater defense autonomy and a stronger European defense industry.

Current European defense initiatives include:

• European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI): A joint effort to strengthen air defense systems.
• European Long Strike Approach (ELSA): A project to develop long-range conventional strike capabilities.
• National investments: Countries like Türkiye are independently advancing missile capabilities, such as a 560 km-range ballistic missile test.

“The focus is not just on positioning brigades along NATO’s borders,” Vandier said. “It’s about having the strategic foresight to build the security architecture of tomorrow.”

Future of European defense industry

Currently, 60% of European military equipment is U.S.-made, but European nations aim to reverse this trend.

The European Commission’s ReArm Europe plan, led by President Ursula von der Leyen, could inject €800 billion ($873.7 billion) into the continent’s defense industry.

“The plan is there—now we must deliver,” Vandier stated, emphasizing the need to scale up industrial production and simplify supply chains.

He pointed out that Europe has spent decades underinvesting in manufacturing infrastructure, which now requires urgent rebuilding.