Growing evidence suggests Azerbaijan Airlines flight was targeted by missile strike
Emergency specialists work at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. (AFP Photo)
Mounting evidence suggests that Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, which crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday killing 38 people, may have been struck by an anti-aircraft missile during heightened military tensions in southern Russia.
Initial reports from Russian aviation authorities attributed the crash to a bird strike. However, survivor accounts, physical evidence, and flight tracking data paint a more complex and troubling picture of what might have befallen the civilian aircraft.
“The third time, something exploded,” recalled survivor Subhonkul Rakhimov in testimony to Russia Today, describing the plane’s final moments during attempted landings in heavy fog near Grozny.
“There was an explosion — I wouldn’t say it was inside the plane. Where I was sitting, the skin next to me flew off.” Rakhimov’s account included a crucial detail: shrapnel damage to his life jacket, indicating a potential military origin of the incident.
Forensic evidence from the crash site reveals extensive shrapnel damage patterns across the aircraft’s fuselage and tail section. Aviation experts note these patterns are inconsistent with bird strike damage, instead bearing hallmarks of anti-aircraft munition impacts.
The concentration of puncture holes in the tail section suggests a possible loss of hydraulic systems, similar to the United Airlines Flight 232 incident.
The timing of the crash coincides with confirmed drone activity in the region. Russian authorities reported drone strikes in Ingushetia and North Ossetia on Wednesday morning, and the nearest airport at Makhachkala was closed to incoming traffic during the critical hours.
Flight tracking data shows the Embraer 190 jet deviated dramatically from its scheduled Baku-Grozny route, crossing the Caspian Sea before attempting to land at Aktau.
Aviation expert Richard Aboulafia challenged the official bird strike explanation, noting, “You can lose control of the plane, but you don’t fly wildly off course as a consequence.” The flight’s unusual trajectory, circling near Aktau airport before its fatal descent, suggests the crew was dealing with severe systems damage.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev initially attributed the course change to poor weather conditions but emphasized the need for a thorough investigation. The incident has prompted Azerbaijan Airlines to suspend all flights to Russia’s Chechnya region indefinitely.
The crash has drawn international attention to the risks civilian aircraft face in regions with active military operations. Of the 67 people aboard, 29 survivors are receiving hospital treatment, including two children. Some survivors are reported to be in extremely serious condition, according to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
Kazakh authorities have established a government commission to investigate the incident, working in cooperation with Azerbaijan. While neither country has officially acknowledged the possibility of military involvement, the investigation’s findings could have significant implications for civilian aviation safety in conflict-adjacent regions.
The incident raises urgent questions about air defense protocols and civilian flight safety in areas of military activity, particularly as drone warfare becomes increasingly common in regional conflicts. As investigators continue their work, the international aviation community awaits answers about what caused this devastating crash and how to prevent similar tragedies in the future.
