Experts say shifting global power dynamics could bring EU closer to Türkiye
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives before a meeting with European Commission President and EU Council President at the EU headquarters in Brussels on March 9, 2020. (AFP Photo)
As global power balances evolve under U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, European Union experts believe increased cooperation with Türkiye could be a strategic move, particularly in achieving peace in Ukraine and stability in the Middle East, including Syria.
EU-Türkiye relations in focus amid changing dynamics
The relationship between the EU and Türkiye has seen incremental improvement over the past year, according to Amanda Paul, a Türkiye expert from the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Paul noted, “Frankly, Trump’s presidency, with its potential to reduce U.S. involvement in NATO or withdraw forces from the alliance’s eastern flank, should open the door to greater interaction between Türkiye and Europe.”
Despite longstanding stagnation in Türkiye-EU relations, Paul believes the geopolitical instability in their shared neighborhood necessitates closer collaboration, “Given the instability in the common neighborhood, one would expect the EU to be more prepared to reengage with Türkiye appropriately.”
Paul also highlighted Türkiye’s strategic importance, not only due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on the Black Sea but also due to Türkiye’s role in Syria, the South Caucasus, and the Middle East.
“Türkiye is positioned at the center of major global developments. The EU must work with Türkiye, and that’s why we’re seeing some small improvements,” he said.
Strategic importance of Türkiye’s role
Giuseppe Spatafora, a senior trans-Atlantic relations expert at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), echoed similar sentiments, stating: “Given the numerous adversaries globally, it is likely best to keep Türkiye on the EU’s good side.”
He pointed out Türkiye’s mediator role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative and its status as Europe’s largest ground force under NATO, “Türkiye chose not to follow other Western states in imposing sanctions on Russia but has played a key mediating role in several areas, such as the Black Sea initiative.”
Building bridges amid challenges
Paul referred to positive developments, such as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s invitation to the informal EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting in August 2024, and recent visits by senior EU officials.
However, she emphasized the need for tangible outcomes in these interactions, “There needs to be a clear agenda for what these discussions aim to achieve and concrete results for Ankara to gain from them.”
On the potential upgrade of the Customs Union, Paul remarked, “Despite being beneficial for both Türkiye and EU businesses, this issue has remained on the table for far too long.”
Common interests in regional stability
Both Paul and Spatafora agreed that Türkiye and the EU share mutual goals in stabilizing the Middle East and preventing Syria from descending into further chaos. Spatafora remarked: “Both sides were pleased with Assad’s fall and do not want Syria to spiral back into turmoil.”
Ondrej Ditrych, a senior analyst at EUISS, added, “Türkiye is keen on finding a stable, sustainable, and just resolution to the Ukraine conflict, as issues like Black Sea security are critical for Türkiye and should be part of any future arrangements.”
