Türkiye’s population could fall below 77M by 2100

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) has released the results of its “Population Projections, 2023-2100” study, forecasting significant changes in the country’s demographic landscape over the coming decades.

Main scenario: Steady growth until mid-21st century

In response to recent shifts in Türkiye’s demographic structure and the institute’s revision policies, TurkStat has updated its population projections using the 2023 Address Based Population Registration System (ADNKS) data. The projections consider current birth, death, and migration trends, presenting three scenarios: main, low, and high.

Under the main scenario, which assumes the continuation of current demographic trends, Türkiye’s population is expected to rise from 85.37 million in 2023 to 88.19 million in 2030 and 93.77 million by 2050. However, growth is anticipated to reverse in the latter half of the century, with the population projected to drop below 77 million by 2100.

Low scenario: Potential sharp decline

The low scenario, which assumes a rapid decline in fertility rates, suggests that Türkiye’s population could peak at 89.96 million in 2044 before falling below 55 million by 2100. This scenario underscores the potential impact of sustained low birth rates on the country’s future demographic profile.

High scenario: Population boost measures

Conversely, the high scenario assumes the effectiveness of measures to increase fertility. Under this scenario, Türkiye’s population could surpass 100 million by 2056, reflecting the potential benefits of policies aimed at boosting birth rates.