Türkiye withdraws from conventional arms treaty as arms race gains momentum

Türkiye withdraws from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. Experts believe that Türkiye is gearing up for a revolution in conventional weapons development

Türkiye announced its decision to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe with a notice published in the Official Gazette on Friday.

The agreement signed in Paris in 1990 imposed limits on conventional military equipment in Europe to halt the arms race during the Cold War. The decision will come into effect on April 8. 

Foreign Minister Fidan had hinted at this decision

Speaking at the NATO Foreign Ministers Summit, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said: “As the European Union increasingly assumes a more decisive position within NATO, there is a problematic issue of the EU excluding the rest of the community, not adequately addressing the security needs and strategic perspectives of non-EU member countries. This is becoming increasingly apparent and is increasingly occupying our agenda.”

Disarmament agreements guaranteeing security are becoming history

Following the Russia-Ukraine War which is threatening the security of Europe, Russia announced its formal withdrawal from the agreement in November 2023. In response, NATO announced the suspension of the agreement in the same month.

The agreement limited the conventional weapon capacities of NATO and former Warsaw Pact members to 20,000 tanks, 30,000 armored combat vehicles, 20,000 heavy artillery pieces, 6,800 combat aircraft, and 2,000 attack helicopters.

Furthermore, member countries of the agreement committed to having their weapon capacities inspected by other member countries when necessary and to reporting regularly.

International Relations Expert Dr. Emrah Kaya, commenting on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to Türkiye Today, said, “While Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement in 2023 prompted the U.S. and NATO to follow suit, Türkiye opposed these decisions. However, with the agreement’s effectiveness now in question, Türkiye has decided to withdraw as well.”

Arms race gains momentum

As the world evolves into multipolarity, actors preparing to position themselves as key players are arming themselves. The primary reason is the pressure exerted by declining imperial states on countries acting with the ambition of becoming great powers.

Experts say that Türkiye’s move is driven by a desire to secure its defense through the development and acquisition of advanced conventional weaponry rather than aggressive intentions.

Dr. Kaya said, “The arms race in global politics is intensifying, prompting countries like Türkiye, which aim to become pivotal players in the multipolar world, to enhance their security measures. This involves bolstering the Turkish army’s arsenal with state-of-the-art conventional weapons. The objective is deterrence, not provocation or aggression.”

Revolutionary developments in Turkish defense industry

Türkiye, making revolutionary strides in the defense industry by developing significant conventional weapons, has become one of the leading countries in the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) sector with the Bayraktar-TB2 UAVs in recent years.

The first indigenous fighter aircraft, KAAN, made its maiden flight on Feb. 21. Serial production of KAAN is planned to start in 2028.

In a period of historic developments in the Turkish defense industry, President Erdogan’s decision to withdraw Türkiye from the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty indicates that Ankara could make new advancements in conventional weapons.

Dr. Kaya stated, “There has been a revolution in UAV and CIWS (close-in weapon system). The development of the indigenous fighter aircraft Kaan marks a major achievement in aviation. Now, the country is embarking on a new era of conventional weapons production.”

What is Türkiye’s goal?

Major powers are currently leveraging next-generation conventional weapons to exert threats on medium and small powers.

In response to the rise of global conflicts, Türkiye, like many other states, is prioritizing its security. This has led to speculation among experts that Türkiye may be aiming to develop its own conventional weapons capabilities.

Speaking to Türkiye Today, Dr. Kadir Ertac Celik, assistant professor at Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, said, “The international system is undergoing a transformation. In the emerging new order, states are arming themselves. Türkiye, which aims to be a major power, must prepare itself for the role it aspires to by increasing its capacity. In this context, Türkiye must have the best weapons to ensure its security. In this framework, Ankara can initiate new ventures by bringing in experts from abroad. In five to six years, what are now futuristic advancements in conventional weapons development may become reality, potentially positioning Türkiye among leading developers in this field.”

Dr. Celik continued: “The process of Türkiye’s acquisition of the S-400 Air Defense Systems clearly demonstrated that Ankara does not bow to anyone regarding matters concerning its sovereignty and security. A similar attitude may be exhibited in the future regarding conventional weapons.”

Source: Newsroom