Türkiye will be affected severely if Santorini volcano erupts, warns Turkish professor

Yildiz Technical University (YTU) geology expert Professor Sukru Ersoy suggested that Türkiye‘s coastal cities will be severely affected if a volcanic eruption on Santorini Island occurs.

Answering Turkish daily Hurriyet‘s questions, he said: “If these volcanoes erupt, Türkiye could be affected. These are the types of volcanoes that emit large amounts of ash, which could reach Türkiye through wind systems. The impact could come both via ocean currents and from the air.”

At least 780 tremors have hit the Aegean Sea since Jan. 28, and 4,600 people have left the island by ferry since Sunday.

In addition, 1,300 passengers left the island by air. Due to intense seismic activity in and around the island, a volcanic eruption is feared in the region.

The Turkish expert also emphasized the damage that a possible volcanic eruption may lead to in the region.

“In severe eruptions, ash clouds can rise as high as seven kilometers, potentially disrupting flights. In fact, planes flying through these clouds risk engine failure and could crash. This happened in 2010 when an Icelandic volcano erupted, leading to the cancellation of 100,000 flights,” he argued.

Harbinger of Santorini volcano eruption?

Ersoy noted that the tremors taking place in the Aegean Sea are not tectonic, but the quakes originate from magma, meaning that they are volcanic earthquakes. He said, ”Even the Greeks call them tectonic, but I have maintained from the beginning that they are volcanic. This is not how tectonic earthquakes behave. Look, quakes of up to magnitude 5 are occurring, but they don’t get any stronger.”

He resembled the quakes as the birth pains of volcanoes. “There are multiple underwater volcanoes near Santorini Island, including Kolumbo and others that haven’t yet surfaced. These tremors signal their activity—what we’re witnessing are the ‘birth pains’ of volcanoes. Understanding this distinction is crucial,” he highlighted.

Potential tsunami risk and precautionary measures if Santorini volcano erupts

The possibility of a tsunami remains a concern if the seismic activity escalates into a stronger earthquake. Tsunami-prone faults exist in the region, and historical records indicate that past earthquakes in the area have triggered large waves.

Greek authorities have taken preemptive measures by evacuating parts of Santorini, closing schools, and deploying emergency teams. While these actions may seem excessive to some, Turkish professor Naci Gorur commended the decision, stressing that proactive measures are crucial.

“A region that shakes every 15-20 minutes undergoes micro-deformation even if no visible destruction occurs,” he noted.

“If a larger rupture happens closer to Türkiye, it could have a direct impact on our coastal areas.”