Türkiye emerging as crucial partner in Europe’s security restructure

As Europe seeks to fortify its defense and establish security guarantees for Ukraine, Türkiye is emerging as a crucial partner in shaping a new European security framework, diplomats and analysts said.

With the war in Ukraine at a crossroads and transatlantic ties under strain, Ankara’s strategic role is gaining prominence amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Türkiye’s role in European security discussions

The prospect of a cease-fire in Ukraine, pushed by U.S. President Donald Trump, has unsettled European leaders, forcing them to explore alternative defense strategies independent of Washington.

In response, European officials are considering Türkiye as a vital actor in the evolving security landscape.

“European countries that thought they had the luxury of excluding Türkiye until today are now seeing that they cannot exclude Türkiye anymore,” said Sinan Ulgen to Reuters, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM).

Following talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized Türkiye’s potential role, stating he presented a “clear proposal for Türkiye to take on the greatest possible co-responsibility” for peace in Ukraine and regional stability.

Türkiye’s balancing act between Ukraine and Russia

A senior European diplomat speaking to Reuters acknowledged Türkiye’s strategic position, noting that Erdogan had carefully maintained diplomatic channels with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin since the onset of the war.

“Türkiye has very important views on what is needed for peace in Ukraine,” the diplomat said. “It makes sense to have him on board.”

Despite being a NATO member, Türkiye has refrained from imposing sanctions on Russia and continues to maintain economic and energy ties with Moscow.

However, it has also provided Ukraine with military support, including armed drones, and has consistently voiced support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Türkiye’s defense capabilities and industry growth

With NATO’s second-largest army, Türkiye has expanded its domestic defense industry, producing fighter jets, tanks, and naval carriers.

In 2024 alone, its defense exports reached $7.1 billion, with key sales of armed drones to Ukraine. Ankara’s defense sector is now seen as an essential component of European security cooperation.

European leaders have explored forming a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine, while France has floated the idea of extending its nuclear deterrence to European allies.

President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have called for Türkiye’s full integration into any restructured security architecture in a “sustainable and deterrent” way.

Potential steps for security cooperation

A Turkish official speaking anonymously to Reuters acknowledged that discussions regarding Europe’s new security framework were still in the early stages but suggested that Türkiye could be included in EU defense initiatives such as the European Peace Facility program, which funds military assistance to Ukraine.

“Instead of including Türkiye in projects in a la carte’ way, it would be more logical for Europe to seek partnerships in a more holistic way,” the official said.

Common interests, future collaboration

A Turkish Defense Ministry official emphasized that Türkiye and Europe share common security interests, from counterterrorism to managing migration.

“Türkiye’s full participation in EU defense efforts is critical for Europe to be a global actor,” the official said, adding that Türkiye is prepared to contribute to the formation of a new security framework.

Despite opportunities for closer cooperation, analysts warn that Türkiye’s ongoing relationship with Russia remains a potential obstacle.

Ankara has yet to fully align with Europe’s view of Russia as a direct security threat, a factor that may influence the extent of Türkiye’s role in European defense planning.

“The fundamental question that will come before Türkiye is the issue of ties with Russia because the essence of Europe’s security framework starts by viewing Russia as a threat,” Ulgen said, noting that Türkiye will need to clarify its long-term stance.

Türkiye’s military contributions and future role

Türkiye has previously facilitated negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, hosted early peace talks in 2022, and proposed reviving Black Sea security agreements.

A Turkish Defense Ministry source recently indicated that Ankara could consider contributing to a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine if a cease-fire is established.

Meanwhile, Türkiye’s Chief of General Staff, Metin Gurak, participated in a meeting of European army chiefs in Paris this week, where he met with counterparts from Britain and France. Both nations have discussed the potential deployment of troops to Ukraine under a security agreement.

A European diplomat underscored the importance of Türkiye’s role in security guarantees for Ukraine, noting that recent shifts in Syria—where Türkiye no longer relies on Russian cooperation—could make Ankara more inclined to deepen ties with Europe.

“Erdogan’s interests lie with us right now, especially as he no longer has that Russia dynamic in Syria,” the diplomat said. “So, in a way, the stars are aligned for them to play a role within the future European guarantees for Ukraine.”