Ruling AK Party heads to congress—Here’s what awaits

This week, as the opposition amplifies its calls for early elections, the ruling coalition’s main party is undergoing significant shifts. The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is preparing for a significant phase of internal restructuring and strategic planning. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emphasized the necessity of renewal within the party and its alignment with the broader vision of the People’s Alliance.

The first signals for a restructuring within the party were there following its second-place finish in the March 31 local elections. In a post-election statement, Erdogan made it clear: “We will not elevate those whom the people have dismissed.” This marked the beginning of a major transformation within the AK Party’s ranks.

Following Erdogan’s remarks on May 14, 2024, expectations of a broad shake-up surged, not only within party organizations and headquarters but also at the cabinet level. However, in line with his historically measured approach to political adjustments, Erdogan postponed these changes until the party’s 8th Ordinary Grand Congress, now scheduled for Feb. 23.

February 23: key date

The AK Party’s internal restructuring is set to take shape on Feb. 23, when key party positions, including the Central Decision and Executive Board (MYK), are expected to be determined. The new leadership selections will prioritize individuals who not only align with the party’s vision but also have the energy and commitment to focus on national issues rather than internal political rivalries.

President Erdogan is expected to favor figures who have strong public support, remain engaged with citizens, and actively communicate the party’s policies, rather than those meritocrats who support the party image from outside.

“Those who can connect with the public in markets and streets, counter misinformation, and remain resilient in the face of political challenges are likely to be given prominent roles within the party’s structure”, party sources said.

Reshuffling

Since Erdogan’s post-election remarks, the AK Party has undergone significant restructuring at the provincial and district levels. According to party sources, approximately 75% of provincial leadership has been replaced, while district-level changes have reached nearly 60%. Women’s and Youth Branch leaderships have also seen key leadership transitions.

The upcoming Feb. 23 congress will mark the culmination of this overhaul, with Erdoğan expected to remain the sole candidate for party chairman. However, insiders suggest the event will bring a broader and deeper transformation within the party’s executive ranks.

High-stakes leadership revisions

AK Party’s past restructuring trends indicate that Erdogan is deliberate in managing intra-party dynamics. In the 2023 general elections, the party enforced its three-term rule for many MPs, leading to a 65% turnover in parliamentary seats. However, the reshuffle within the party’s Executive Board (MYK) remained limited, even as nearly two-thirds of the Central Decision and Executive Board (MKYK) were revamped during the last extraordinary congress.

This time, expectations are different. Reports suggest that at least 10 of the 16 MYK members may be replaced. Some party figures believe the grassroots-level transformations will inevitably impact the party’s executive leadership as well. According to sources, “Following the March 31 elections, Erdogan made it clear that changes were necessary at all levels. This congress will not just be about numbers—it will reflect a qualitative shift.”

Meanwhile, discussions suggest that changes within the AK Party’s parliamentary group should not be ruled out.

Cabinet shake-up looming?

Beyond the party structure, there is speculation that the anticipated restructuring could extend to Erdogan’s cabinet. The recent fire tragedy at the Kartalkaya Hotel, which claimed 78 lives—including some of Erdogan’s close acquaintances—has amplified scrutiny over government oversight.

Following the disaster, Erdogan stated, “This is an extremely grave incident. If our own people are at fault, we will pursue this matter to the end.” This strong stance has fueled speculation that Minister of Culture and Tourism Mehmet Nuri Ersoy’s position could be at risk.

While it remains uncertain how extensive the cabinet changes will be, observers anticipate at least some ministerial replacements in the near future.

The Ministry of Justice, as well, has been at the center of recent discussions, given the unveiling of the latest judicial reform package. The recently announced judicial reform package is seen as a significant step toward addressing the long-standing issues within Türkiye’s legal system. 

While political debates around judicial matters often dominate discourse, the primary concerns of the public revolve around access to the fairness of the legal processes. The reform aims to improve efficiency in civil, family, and criminal courts, responding to citizens’ demands for a more effective judiciary.

Another important point in the justice reform agenda is the discussion around sentencing adjustments and the potential for new regulations concerning prison sentences. While some have speculated about possible amnesty measures, recent statements indicate that any legislative changes will focus on structured sentencing reforms rather than blanket pardons.

Future of AK Party

With the AK Party grappling with the fallout from its local election performance, the upcoming Feb. 23 congress is set to be a defining moment for the party. The extensive reshuffling suggests that similar changes are likely at the executive level, and the possibility of cabinet revisions adds another layer of uncertainty. The steps they take will determine their response to an opposition increasingly gearing up for elections.