Most Istanbulites doubt Syrian refugee return after regime change: Survey
Syrian refugees return home following 61-year Baath regime collapse, from Kilis border crossing, in Kilis, Türkiye, Dec. 21, 2024. (Photo edited by Türkiye Today staff)
In a recent survey conducted by the Istanbul Planning Agency, participants were asked, “How many Syrian refugees do you think will return to their country after a regime change in Syria?”
Of the participants, 47.8% believed that only a small portion of Syrians would return to their country. This was the most common response. 17.7% thought that the majority of Syrians would return, while 20.7% believed that about half would go back.
Additionally, 4.3% thought all Syrians would return, and 9.4% believed that no Syrians would return to their homeland.
These results indicate that participants have varying expectations regarding the future of Syria’s refugee population in Türkiye, with a majority feeling that it is unlikely that most Syrians will return to Syria in the long term.
Background
Sixty-one years of Baath Party rule in Syria collapsed on Dec. 8, 2024, when the capital Damascus fell out of the hands of regime control.
The Arab Socialist Baath Party had come to power in Syria in 1963, in a coup.
In 1970, Hafez al-Assad—the father of Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s newly deposed ruler—seized power in an internal party coup and became president in 1971.
After the death of his father in 2000, Bashar al-Assad took over the Baath regime.
The rule of Assad and the Baath regime ended when anti-regime groups entered the capital Damascus, capping off a series of rapid and dramatic developments since late last month.
As popular movements demanding freedom broke out in Syria in 2011, the regime violently cracked down on activists for change.
The regime’s interventions, in which thousands of people were killed, turned the process into a civil war.
While armed opposition groups engaged in a long struggle, the regime refused to resolve the conflict through diplomacy and peaceful means, despite international pressure, including by regional actors.
Following clashes that intensified on Nov. 27, the regime lost control of many regions in the country, starting with Aleppo, Idlib and Hama.
Finally, with the people taking to the streets in the capital Damascus, regime forces started to withdraw from public institutions and streets, while anti-regime groups increased their hold over the city center.
With Assad’s forces conceding the capital, 61 years of the bloody Baath regime and 53 years of Assad family rule came to an end.
