Latest poll: Erdogan trails opposition candidate by 10 points

Yoneylem Social Research Center has released its first public opinion poll of 2025, revealing key insights into Türkiye‘s political landscape.

The “Türkiye Politics Survey” poll was conducted in person between Jan. 3 and Jan. 7 and surveyed 2,100 people across 81 provinces.

According to the poll, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trailing by 10 percentage points, regardless of who the opposition candidate is. Suggesting that the opposition’s united candidate has a clear edge over Erdogan.

The research further indicates that the ruling AK Party is narrowly ahead in general elections. Yet the margin of advantage appears to have narrowed.

Poll questions and results

1. Voting (if elections were held this Sunday):

• AK Party (AK Party): 24.9%
• Republican People’s Party (CHP): 24.5%
• Democratic Party (DEM Party): 7.6%
• Nationalist Movement Party (MHP): 6.7%
• Good Party (Iyi Party): 2.9%

2. Voting (following undecided distribution):

• AK Party): 31.4%
• CHP: 30.9%
• MHP: 8.4%
• DEM Party: 9.5%
• Iyi Party: 3.6%

3. Opinion on Türkiye’s governance:

• “Do you think Türkiye is being governed well or poorly?”
  • Poorly: 53.6%
  • Well: 24.1%
  • Neither well nor poorly: 21.1%

4. Most important issue facing Türkiye:

• Economic issues (crisis, inflation, cost of living): 85.7%
• Legal system issues: 13.8%
• Educational system issues: 10.2%

5. Which party can solve Türkiye’s problems?

• AK Party: 27.6%
• CHP: 20.7%
• None: 31.4%

6. Evaluation of President Erdogan’s success:

• “Do you think President Erdogan is successful or unsuccessful?”
  • Successful: 38.7%
  • Unsuccessful: 38.1%
  • Neither: 21.6%

7. Hypothetical presidential election (if held this Sunday):

• Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 37.1%
• Opposition candidate: 47.5%
• Undecided: 9.4%
• Would not vote: 6%

8. Effect of the Assad regime’s fall on Erdogan and his alliance’s popularity:

• “Do you think the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria increased Erdogan and the ruling alliance’s popularity?”
  • Yes: 51.1%
  • No: 41.5%

9. Appointment of trustees to opposition-run municipalities:

• “How do you evaluate the appointment of trustees to municipalities run by opposition parties?”
  • Wrong: 55.3%
  • Right: 34.9%

10. Success of CHP mayors in local elections (March 31, 2024):

• “Do you think the CHP mayors, who won many new municipalities in the local elections, have been generally successful or unsuccessful?”
  • Successful: 46%
  • Unsuccessful: 35.4%

11. Imposing seizure on CHP-run municipalities:

• “Do you find the application of seizures to CHP-run municipalities correct or wrong?”
  • Wrong: 57%
  • Right: 33%

12. Opinion on MHP leader Devlet Bahceli’s disarmament call to Abdullah Ocalan:

• “How do you evaluate MHP leader Devlet Bahceli’s calls to Abdullah Ocalan?”
  • Wrong, I do not support: 59.7%
  • Right, I support: 26.3%
  • Not aware of Bahceli’s statements: 7.5%
  • No answer: 6.5%