Geopolitical instability tops Türkiye’s risks: Report

The Türkiye Risk Report 2025, published by GRC Management annually, provides an analysis of the most pressing risks facing Türkiye in the coming years. The report identifies geopolitical instability as the dominant concern, along with economic and social risks that could shape the country’s future.

Türkiye’s geopolitical instability has emerged as the most significant risk in the country’s five-year outlook, with 92% of experts classifying it as a high or very high risk. The ongoing regional conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Palestine crisis, and growing tensions in Syria, have exacerbated concerns over Türkiye’s position in global politics. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has also intensified expectations of heightened global instability, particularly in the Middle East.

The report highlights the long-term effects of forced migration from war-torn regions, particularly from Syria and Gaza, which have led to sustained demographic shifts and resource management challenges. The inability to efficiently integrate and support displaced populations poses a long-term socioeconomic risk, further destabilizing national cohesion.

Economic conflicts

International economic disputes and the likelihood of continued sanctions against countries such as Russia, Iran, and China rank among Türkiye’s most pressing concerns. Approximately 87% of respondents believe that economic conflicts will persist in the coming years, impacting Türkiye’s access to global markets. The anticipated trade restrictions from the U.S., particularly in technology and energy, are expected to affect Türkiye’s economic landscape significantly.

The report also warns of potential retaliatory sanctions against Türkiye if its foreign policy conflicts with Western economic interests. The country’s reliance on imports, especially in technology and raw materials, makes it particularly vulnerable to international policy shifts.

Economic crisis

While economic risks have consistently featured in previous reports, 2025 marks a shift where societal concerns have overtaken financial threats. The data suggests that 79% of experts foresee a prolonged economic crisis, up from 71% in 2024. Inflation remains a key concern, particularly in the service sector, where price stability has proven elusive.

Despite efforts by the central bank, inflation expectations remain high, with the report underlining the disconnect between fiscal and monetary policy. The reliance on interest rate adjustments without complementary fiscal measures has led to skepticism about the effectiveness of economic reforms.

Brain drain and skilled workforce

Türkiye’s brain drain, once limited to highly educated professionals, is now affecting blue-collar workers as well. The report shows that while the issue has dropped from first place in 2024 to fifth in 2025, its impact remains significant. The increasing number of skilled workers leaving the country for better economic opportunities abroad is seen as a major risk to Türkiye’s long-term competitiveness.

Employers are struggling to retain talent due to high inflation and wage instability, which limits companies’ ability to offer competitive salaries. The combination of economic uncertainty and political instability has created a challenging environment for workforce retention.

Media manipulation and misinformation concerns

For the first time, the issue of “media echo chambers and fake news” has emerged as a top concern, ranking second in overall risk assessments. Analysts attribute this to increasing social media restrictions and growing censorship in digital platforms. The report highlights that misinformation campaigns and controlled narratives pose a significant threat to public trust, potentially influencing both political stability and economic decisions.

This finding aligns with the broader trend of governments worldwide tightening control over digital spaces, raising concerns about access to unbiased information.

Regional conflicts

Tensions with neighboring countries remain a serious risk, as regional conflicts could spill over into Türkiye’s borders. The report notes that potential escalation between Iran and Israel, along with prolonged instability in Syria, could trigger security concerns and disrupt trade routes.

Türkiye’s role as a transit hub for energy and commerce remains a double-edged sword; while it provides economic opportunities, it also exposes the country to geopolitical turbulence. The reliance on stable trade partnerships means that any escalation in conflicts could have direct economic consequences.

The report concludes that Türkiye’s risk landscape is increasingly intertwined with global economic and political shifts. Without proactive policy adjustments, the country could face prolonged economic hardship and social fragmentation. Combining fiscal discipline with targeted incentives for workforce retention, is crucial to mitigating risks.