Experts see ‘window of opportunity’ for improved Türkiye-US relations under Trump

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, analysts predict a chance to revive Türkiye-US relations, though contentious issues like Gaza may hinder progress.

Strengthened Erdogan-Trump ties to benefit relations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s quick congratulatory call to Trump signals a renewed chance for cooperation. Experts note that Erdogan and Trump’s previous relationship could help advance discussions on strategic issues like Syria and Ukraine.

Speaking to the Anadolu Agency, Luke Coffey from the Hudson Institute pointed out the potential for pragmatic collaboration, while Kadir Ustun from the SETA Foundation emphasized the value of their personal rapport, despite Trump’s unpredictability.

Potential shift in US troop presence in Syria

The continued U.S. support for the YPG, a terrorist group linked to the PKK, which is also recognized as a terrorist group by the U.S. and other nations remains a primary point of contention. Analysts suggest Trump may pull troops out of Syria, aligning with Türkiye’s concerns. However, divisions within the Republican Party could complicate this decision.

Robert S. Ford, former U.S. ambassador to Syria, predicts Trump may reconsider the YPG partnership. He notes the potential vacuum left by U.S. troops could invite increased influence from Iran or the Assad regime, something neither the U.S. nor Türkiye desires.

Türkiye’s role in Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Türkiye’s strategic position in peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine is expected to be a significant asset in U.S. diplomacy. Trump could leverage Türkiye’s unique trust with both parties to facilitate negotiations, according to analysts.

Trump’s Gaza policy could spark tension

Despite areas of potential agreement, policy differences over Gaza may strain relations. Trump’s support for Israeli policies, including annexation moves, could conflict with Erdogan’s stance, especially concerning the Palestinian resistance.

Luke Coffey warns that Trump’s reluctance to press Benjamin Netanyahu may exacerbate disagreements, while Ustun anticipates potential friction if Trump aligns closely with Israel’s current policies.

Lingering issues over Ankara’s defense procurement

The unresolved issue of Türkiye’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system remains a sticking point. Despite the recent approval of the F-16 sale, experts believe trust needs to be rebuilt before addressing the more complex F-35 dilemma.

James Jeffrey expresses cautious optimism, suggesting the new administration may attempt confidence-building measures to mend ties.