Experts optimistic about resolution of Iraq-Türkiye oil export issue during Erdogan’s visit

Experts foresee resolution of Iraq-Türkiye oil export deadlock during Erdogan’s upcoming visit, potentially easing tensions between Erbil and Baghdad

Experts are assessing that the issue of oil exports from Iraq to Türkiye, which was halted last year and has not been resumed due to disputes between Erbil and Baghdad, could be resolved with the visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The flow of oil from Iraq to the Ceyhan Port ceased on March 25, 2023, following a decision by the Paris-based International Arbitration Court regarding oil exports between Türkiye and Iraq.

Due to Erbil and Baghdad’s failure to reach an agreement on oil exports, it is estimated that the Iraqi economy suffered losses of approximately $14 billion over the past year.

During President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s expected visit to Iraq on April 22, the resumption of oil exports is anticipated to be a significant agenda item.

Iraqi energy experts believe that the resumption of oil exports from Iraq to Türkiye would have positive effects on both countries and Baghdad-Erbil relations.

‘Resumption of oil shipment will benefit both Iraq and Türkiye’

Energy expert Mazin es-Saad pointed out ongoing reciprocal visits between Iraq and Türkiye, suggesting that the issue of oil exports could be resolved with President Erdogan’s visit.

“The positive atmosphere between Iraq and Türkiye could make this issue (oil shipment) a top priority. We hope and expect to see results that will serve the interests of both countries emerge from Erdogan’s visit,” Saad said.

Energy expert Hamza Cevahiri also mentioned that Iraq has completed the repair of the oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Fishkhabur, where test shipments of oil have been conducted.

‘Export of KRG oil will benefit the central government’s budget’

Iraq Energy Center Chairperson Firat Musevi stated that Iraq continues to repair the pipeline with a capacity to transfer 350,000 barrels of oil per day. Musevi emphasized the necessity for oil produced by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to come under the control of the central government.

“This will strengthen Iraq’s hand in exporting oil to Türkiye,” Musevi said, adding: “The reactivation of the Iraq oil pipeline will open a significant door for negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil.”

“Ultimately, the export of KRG oil will benefit the central government’s budget. The issue of resuming oil sales from the KRG will depend on negotiations to be held during Erdogan’s visit to Iraq,” he further said.

‘Resumption of exports will contribute to resolving Erbil-Baghdad issues’

Energy expert Sehriyar Seyhler stressed that oil exports are the backbone of the KRG economy, with the major political issue between Baghdad and Erbil being the oil problem.

He noted that due to the halt in oil exports, some companies have left the KRG in the past 13 months, and the resumption of exports will have positive repercussions for both these companies and investments in the region.

“With the continuation of oil supply, the implementation of economic plans related to the economy will be facilitated,” Seyhler said.

Source: Newsroom