Erdogan leads in 1st round, Imamoglu wins in 2nd for presidential race: Survey

The survey conducted by the Social Impact Research Center (TEAM) revealed interesting results regarding the upcoming presidential election.

In a three-way race between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, Erdogan leads, while Imamoglu takes second place, according to Turkish media.

As a result, the election heads into a second round, where Imamoglu wins by a significant margin.

Key insights from survey

• In the initial three-way race, after undecided voters were accounted for, Recep Tayyip Erdogan received 37%, Ekrem Imamoglu received 35.9%, and Mansur Yavas secured 19.7%. Meanwhile, 7.4% were undecided or chose other options.
• In a two-way race between Erdogan and Imamoglu, the second round would result in Ekrem Imamoglu leading with 57.2%, while Erdogan would secure 42.8% of the vote.

This survey, conducted before the discussions on the “pre-election” debate within the Republican People’s Party (CHP), strengthens the argument within the party that Ekrem Imamoglu should be the presidential candidate.

However, there are other polls where Yavas leads in different scenarios.

While presidential election polls continue, the main opposition party, CHP, is facing significant internal conflicts. The power struggle between Imamoglu and Yavas has become a key factor in shaping the party’s future.

Imamoglu’s legal challenges

Imamoglu, a prominent figure in Türkiye’s opposition CHP Party, is currently facing multiple legal battles. One of the most pressing is an indictment related to his remarks about a court-appointed expert during a press conference on Jan. 27.

Imamoglu is accused of attempting to influence judicial officials by disclosing the expert’s identity, which could result in a prison sentence of two to four years.

Additionally, Imamoglu is entangled in several other lawsuits, including one regarding controversial comments he made about Istanbul’s Chief Public Prosecutor, Akin Gurlek.

The trial for this case, in which Imamoglu could face up to seven years and four months in prison, is set for April 11.

Alongside this, he is also facing charges for allegedly interfering with a tender process during his tenure as Mayor of Beylikduzu, with a prison sentence ranging from three to seven years.

The ongoing legal cases have placed Imamoglu under significant scrutiny and could affect his future political ambitions. Along with these, there is a controversial “money counting” footage case involving Imamoglu’s associates.

Imamoglu vs Yavas: Growing rivalry within CHP

The rivalry between Imamoglu and Yavas has become a defining issue within the main opposition CHP.

Both figures are seen as potential presidential candidates for the upcoming elections, but their contrasting political styles and ambitions have caused a silent power struggle.

Imamoglu, known for his modern, pro-European stance, frequently engages with the media and international figures. In contrast, Yavas appeals to conservative and nationalist voters, focusing more on practical governance.

Despite both men maintaining a public display of unity, their competition for the party’s leadership has been a source of tension.

CHP leader Ozgur Ozel is caught in the middle, trying to manage the internal rivalry while preparing for future elections. Imamoglu has expressed his desire to run for president, which may trigger further divisions within the party if Ozel delays backing him.

Meanwhile, Yavas has opted out of CHP’s upcoming primary election process, complicating the situation further.