April 23 Istanbul earthquake raises alarm for ‘even stronger’ event, says seismologist Gorur
People leave the buildings in panic and call their loved ones after 6.2 magnitude earthquake jolts Istanbul, Türkiye on April 23, 2025. (AA Photo)
A 6.2 magnitude Istanbul earthquake that struck on Wednesday has renewed attention on previous warnings from one of Türkiye’s most prominent earthquake experts about the potential for a more destructive seismic event in the region.
Professor Dr. Naci Gorur, a respected seismologist, had previously cautioned that the Marmara region would experience an earthquake between magnitude 6 and 7, adding ominously that “what follows will be even stronger.”
Gorur emphasized once again that the main earthquake event will likely exceed magnitude 7, a scenario long feared by experts familiar with the region’s seismic history.
Prominent Turkish seismologist criticizes quake preparedness
The seismologist criticized the current approach to earthquake preparedness, noting that earthquake resilience extends far beyond construction efforts.
Urban transformation and building construction alone do not prepare a city for earthquakes. An earthquake-resistant city is something entirely different. The public must now do what’s necessary through oversight and monitoring.
Gorur also stressed that earthquakes should be discussed and prepared for before they occur, not after.
Earthquakes are too important a matter to only be discussed when they happen. We must talk about them and take precautions when they’re not happening.
He called for coordinated action among government authorities, municipalities, and citizens to properly prepare Istanbul for seismic events, a concern that experts have raised for years regarding potential Marmara region earthquake scenarios.
Istanbul earthquakes on April 23 prompt discussion on earthquake preparedness
The April 23 Istanbul earthquake has reignited the ongoing debate about Istanbul’s earthquake readiness, with Gorur’s warnings serving as a stark reminder of the challenges that still lie ahead for Türkiye’s largest metropolitan area.
Following the April 23 tremor, Gorur’s earlier statements have gained renewed urgency as experts reassess the seismic threat to Türkiye’s most populous city.
“There are many earthquakes occurring on the Kumburgaz fault in the Marmara Sea near Istanbul, of various magnitudes,” Gorur wrote after the April 23 Istanbul earthquake.
“This is not the major earthquake we’ve been expecting in Marmara. These events are increasing the stress accumulated by this fault, pushing it toward rupture,” he concluded.
Areas most at risk in Istanbul during a strong earthquake
There are districts in Istanbul that are vulnerable in terms of geological structure and urban development.
- Zeytinburnu
- Fatih (Historical Peninsula)
- Bakirkoy
- Avcilar (especially coastal areas and near Kucukcekmece Lake)
- Kucukcekmece (Menekse, Kanarya, Cumhuriyet neighborhoods)
- Beylikduzu (Gurpinar: Pekmez and Pinarkent neighborhoods)
- Buyukcekmece (Devebagirtan region)
- Kumburgaz and Silivri
These zones are marked by loose soil, landslide-prone terrain, and dense construction near the Marmara fault line.
Safer zones in Istanbul in terms of ground stability include:
- Kadikoy
- Camlica
- Aydos
- Upper parts of Kartal and Maltepe
What are other experts saying about Istanbul earthquakes?
Seismologist Okan Tuysuz told NTV that the Istanbul earthquake followed a typical sequence: a foreshock, a main shock, and smaller aftershocks.
This kind of activity is expected. A 5-magnitude aftershock may follow. The probability of a much larger quake being triggered right now is low, but vigilance is needed.
Tuysuz said
Professor Dr. Hasan Sozbilir, Director of the Earthquake Research and Application Center at Dokuz Eylul University, emphasized the significance of the recent seismic events.
He noted that the 6.2 magnitude earthquake on April 23 was a partial rupture along the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault.
Only a portion of the fault was activated. A complete rupture would likely produce a 7.4 or 7.5 magnitude quake. This partial event is actually positive, as it may relieve some built-up stress.
Sozbilir explained
The 6.2 magnitude earthquake off Silivri has prompted immediate government response and technical evaluations across transport, infrastructure, and housing. Metro operations remain stable, and aftershocks are being tracked closely by seismic experts.
Schools, universities closed for 2 days following Istanbul earthquakes
Following the 6.2 and 5.9 magnitude Istanbul earthquakes in the Marmara Sea, Türkiye’s Education Minister Yusuf Tekin announced that all schools across Istanbul will be closed for two days as a precaution.
The decision, made in coordination with the Interior Ministry and
AFAD, aims to ensure public safety and provide temporary shelter options if needed.
The Istanbul Governor’s Office also confirmed that public employees who are pregnant, disabled, veterans, or mothers of children under 10 will receive administrative leave during this period. Staff in essential services, such as healthcare and security, are excluded from this measure.
In addition, universities in Istanbul will remain closed on April 24, Thursday, and April 25, Friday, aligning with the broader safety protocols in the city.
Safety reminders from Turkish authorities after Istanbul earthquakes
Türkiye’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) and Istanbul’s Governor’s Office advised citizens to follow some basic rules to ensure their safety.
- Avoid using elevators
- Shelter under sturdy furniture to form a “life triangle”
- Avoid balconies and windows
- Do not overload mobile networks
- Follow updates only from official sources
Authorities continue to monitor the aftermath of the April 23 earthquake, while emergency teams complete structural inspections across Istanbul.
With no major damage reported so far, officials are focusing on aftershock assessments and public safety measures in vulnerable districts.
