US warns Iran of limited capacity to restrain Israel
This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli F-15 fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (AFP Photo/Handout/Israeli Army)
The Joe Biden administration has reportedly issued a warning to Iran, cautioning that if Tehran launches another attack on Israel, the U.S. will be unable to restrain Israeli responses.
This message comes as tensions escalate in the region following recent military strikes.
Background of recent strikes
The U.S. warning follows an incident on Oct. 1 when Iran launched an attack on Israel, reportedly in retaliation for a series of Israeli assassinations. Israel responded by targeting Iranian military sites but refrained from striking nuclear or oil production facilities.
A U.S. official stated that the administration directly communicated with Iran, emphasizing, “We won’t be able to hold Israel back, and we can’t ensure the next attack will be as targeted as the previous one.”
The communication, described as rare, was reportedly passed through the Swiss, according to a former Israeli official.
Iran’s potential response
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently stated that the U.S. and Israel would “definitely receive a crushing response.” Additionally, Esmail Kowsari, a member of Iran’s national security committee, indicated that while a response has been decided, its timing and scale are still under deliberation.
“The enemies – both the Zionist regime and the United States of America – will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and the resistance front,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said.
He suggested the response would be coordinated with other regional groups and exceed the scope of Iran’s Oct. 1 attack, which included 180 ballistic missiles.
U.S. and Israeli preparations
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated on Friday that the administration had been clear about its stance, saying, “Iran should not respond, and we will continue to support Israel if they do.”
The Pentagon has taken precautionary measures, deploying additional missile defense systems, fighter jets, and B-52 bombers to the Middle East.
Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, said, “Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people.”
Anticipated attack from Iraqi territory
Recent Israeli intelligence has suggested that Iran may plan an attack using bases in Iraq. Such an attack would likely involve the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and allied Shia militias, utilizing both drones and ballistic missiles.
U.S. officials confirmed that this scenario remains a possibility in the near future. Experts believe that attacking Iraqi territory might be a strategic move by Iran to avoid direct retaliation on its own soil.
US-Israel coordination, next steps
The U.S. and Israel have coordinated over the past few weeks regarding potential military responses. Both nations have agreed on target guidelines, with Israeli sources noting that nuclear and oil facilities remain off-limits.
Israel has signaled it would respond to any attack, even if it originates from outside Iranian borders. “It will depend on how massive the attack is and what are its results,” said an Israeli official.
