Trump’s Gaza plan puts Sissi to test

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is facing mounting pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the future of Gaza and therefore Egypt. Trump’s proposal, which envisions the displacement of Palestinians and the U.S. playing a dominant role in Gaza’s “reconstruction”, has been met with strong resistance from Cairo and Amman. The Egyptian government has categorically rejected any notion of forced displacement, calling it a violation of Palestinian rights and a threat to Egypt’s national security.

Despite Trump’s claims that he has secured support from regional leaders, Egyptian state media swiftly denied any such agreement was reached with Sissi. The Egyptian Parliament, along with the Foreign Ministry, has made it clear that Egypt will not be complicit in the forced relocation of Gazans to Sinai. 

Sissi publicly declared that any displacement plan is “a red line.” However, it remains to be seen how he will maintain this red line.

A dangerous precedent

Shahira Amin, an analyst and expert on the region at the Atlantic Council, commented Sissi is in a precarious position. Allowing displaced Palestinians into Sinai, she warns, could jeopardize Egypt’s national security. 

“If a rocket is fired from Sinai into Israel, the Israelis will retaliate. That could unravel the peace treaty,” she explains.

Recently, Israel’s military operations uncovered a network of tunnels leading from Gaza into Egyptian territory. If Gazans amass on the other side of the border, they will not only gain greater latitude to mobilize for their cause but could also unsettle Cairo’s peace, both through border pressures and broader societal upheaval.

In talks to Türkiye Today, Amin emphasizes the challenge Sissi faces, stating, “Trump’s proposal has put Sissi in a difficult position. Should he cave into U.S. pressure and accept Trump’s offer, he risks unrest at home, where most Egyptians strongly support the Palestinians. But outright defiance carries its own risks—Egypt can’t afford to alienate Washington completely.”

Despite the pressure, Amin believes that “some sort of compromise will be reached,” pointing out that Egypt has already expressed willingness to help rebuild Gaza.

Amin further notes that Sissi is seeking a “compromise solution” that will be discussed at the upcoming Arab Summit on Feb. 27. 

Egypt’s alternative proposal

As an alternative to Trump’s plan, Egypt is working alongside the World Bank on a reconstruction initiative for Gaza that excludes Hamas from governance. This proposal envisions a temporary administration managed by a civil society-led committee, rather than Hamas or any single political faction. The plan, which has received backing from key Arab states like the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, aims to restore Gaza’s infrastructure over a three-to-five-year period, ensuring that Palestinians remain on their land rather than seeking refuge elsewhere.

A crucial element of Egypt’s approach is maintaining regional stability by preventing further conflict. However, the major question of who will provide security in Gaza remains unanswered. No Arab country has shown willingness to deploy troops in the absence of a clear roadmap for Palestinian statehood. This lack of security guarantees continues to be a sticking point for Israel.

The emergent Arab Summit is scheduled to take place in Riyadh, where further details of Egypt’s plan will be discussed. Saudi Arabia, while not explicitly calling for Hamas’ exclusion from governance, has signaled approval of a more moderate leadership structure in Gaza.

Sissi’s leverage

Despite receiving roughly $1.3 billion annually in U.S. military aid, Cairo is well aware of what’s at stake and is maneuvering carefully within its limited strategic space—seeking to position itself without jeopardizing that support.

However, as Egyptian journalist Amin explains, Egypt’s leverage hinges on how its regime views itself. “They believe that since the U.S. prioritizes maintaining peace—now in its fourth decade—they can exploit that as a bargaining chip.”

Amin points out that Egypt’s role as a mediator, once a key advantage, is now under threat. “The carpet is being pulled from under Egypt’s feet, and Qatar is now a major player,” he says. Despite its long-standing position as a regional broker, Egypt’s influence is increasingly eclipsed by Gulf states.

Amin also underscored the economic stakes at play, stating, “Whether Egypt likes it or not, there’s too much on the line. Trump has already threatened to cut economic aid at a time of crisis and massive debt. Egypt cannot afford to provoke Washington—it simply cannot risk angering Trump.”

Sissi’s legitimacy is largely derived from foreign recognition, whether through economic and military aid or diplomatic backing. The less aid flowing into the country, the higher the chance that the scenario that happened in Syria can repeat itself in another place.

Egypt also has critical economic dependencies, including energy agreements with Israel. “Actually, there’s been an increase in gas supplies to Egypt because of the growing demand. So there is the trade issue, but also security cooperation with Israel, which has been close. Given these ties, I don’t see Egypt being willing to antagonize the U.S. or sever its relationship with Israel.”

Given these pressures, Amin concludes that Egypt is searching for a middle ground: “That’s why they’re desperately looking for compromised solutions that Trump might agree to.”

The ongoing war in Gaza has severely impacted Egypt’s economy. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have caused disruptions to Suez Canal revenues, an essential source of foreign currency for Egypt. Cairo sees stabilizing Gaza as vital to restoring regional trade and ensuring economic stability.

What comes next?

The Trump administration’s approach to Gaza has faced criticism from Arab leaders and international diplomats, who view the proposed displacement of Palestinians as both impractical and unethical. While Egypt remains firm in its opposition to forced relocation, the upcoming Arab Summit in Riyadh could be a turning point in defining a regional alternative to Trump’s plan.

This time when Sissi canceled his visit to Washington, King Abdullah replaced him. However, only time will tell who is present if there is a confrontation.