Scenarios of HTS, SNA amid ongoing Northern Syria offensive

Tensions between the Syrian opposition groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) have drawn attention recently, with the SNA accusing HTS of several aggressive actions in a letter of condemnation.

In a statement, the SNA claimed that HTS looted a thermal plant, imprisoned soldiers from the SNA’s operations room, and ‘launched attacks on areas already liberated by SNA fighters.’ The SNA has called on HTS to cease hostilities immediately, release the detained soldiers, and return the areas to their previous condition. However, experts suggest the issue is not as severe as it might appear, pointing to instances where some SNA figures have acknowledged HTS’s actions as justified.

According to Omer Ozkizilcik, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, the tensions are relatively minor and largely the result of miscommunication. “This is a minor issue, but it reflects a communication breakdown,” he explained.

The incident reportedly began with allegations of looting by individuals in the region.

HTS detained those accused, prompting the SNA to demand their release. “Later, some individuals from the Syrian National Army have given affirmations opposing the SNA’s position and supporting HTS’s actions,” Ozkizilcik noted.

Despite the immediate tensions, Ozkizilcik stressed the importance of focusing on long-term solutions: “Once the military situation in Syria stabilizes, HTS and the SNA will need to establish a new framework for engagement and governance. A period of calm in military developments will likely precede this process.”

Coordination challenges, future prospects

When asked about existing coordination mechanisms between HTS and the SNA, Ozkizilcik highlighted the presence of joint operations rooms during specific military campaigns. “In the operation targeting Aleppo, HTS and SNA cooperated within the same operations room.

In other cases, SNA groups operated separately,” he said. The central issue, he pointed out, is delineating boundaries in regions not under HTS control. “Areas outside HTS control will likely remain inaccessible to HTS forces,” he explained.

A week after the offensive, the groups developed distinct spheres of influence, with HTS generally advancing southward and the SNA moving eastward. The division reflects a practical coordination effort between the two, albeit underlined by ideological differences.

Egyptian columnist and journalist Ali Zalat, speaking with Türkiye Today, stated: “For now, rebel groups remain focused on military objectives, wary of Russian airstrikes and the looming presence of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, which claim to protect Shiite shrines but also aim to block opposition advances.”

Zalat further explained: “Julani has provided Idlib’s residents with a semblance of stability through a civilian administration that collaborates with his robust security apparatus, ensuring access to food, electricity, and security—basic needs that have become luxuries in war-torn Syria.” A recent report indicates that HTS is planning to expand its civil administration into parts of Aleppo, a move that could reduce potential post-conflict tensions over resources and governance, paving the way for a more stable transition in the future.

With its strict governance contrasting SNA’s more fragmented, factional approach, HTS & SNA work differently for sure. What will ultimately be decisive, however, is whether those groups will be willing to cooperate for areas that are saved from Assad and its backers in the future.

Implications for regional stability

The ongoing disputes could undermine efforts to establish stability in northern Syria, where millions of civilians already live in precarious conditions. However, the acknowledgment by some SNA figures that HTS’s actions were justified indicates that the situation may not escalate further.

The international community, particularly Türkiye, has an admittedly crucial role in mediating between these groups to support governance structures that promote stability. Clearer mechanisms for coordination and conflict resolution will be essential for managing future challenges and avoiding further escalations.