Saudi nuclear project: Military threat or long-term investment in clean energy?

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated during his visit to Saudi Arabia on April 14 that the Trump administration is in talks with the Saudis to reach an agreement that would give the kingdom access to U.S. nuclear technology and could even allow it to enrich uranium itself on its own soil.

“We haven’t worked out the details of the agreement yet, but it certainly looks like there’s a way to get there,” he said.

He added, “As for the US partnership in the nuclear sector with Saudi Arabia, there will definitely be a 123 agreement… and there are many ways to formulate an agreement that achieves both Saudi and American goals.”

The so-called “123 agreement” is based on Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act of 1954, a basic legal requirement that allows the U.S. government and its companies to engage in nuclear cooperation with other countries, provided they meet nonproliferation standards, including preventing the use of the technology to develop nuclear weapons or transfer sensitive nuclear materials to a third party.

Although the recent statement by the US Secretary of Energy represents a qualitative shift in the trajectory of the Saudi nuclear project, it is not the first step the Kingdom has taken in its dream of completing the project and bringing it to fruition.

History of Saudi nuclear project

It’s no secret that Saudi Arabia is seriously seeking to diversify its energy sources as part of Vision 2030, which aims to reduce dependence on oil and expand the use of renewable energy, including nuclear power.

Looking back at Saudi Arabia’s history of interest in civilian nuclear energy, we see that the Kingdom previously signed an agreement with the United States to develop a civilian nuclear program in 2008 as part of the program known as “Atoms for Peace.”

Since 2010, the Kingdom has established an integrated energy project and research center at the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy. In 2011, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to invest $80 billion in the construction of 16 nuclear reactors over the next two decades.

In 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman inaugurated the Kingdom’s first low-energy research reactor, as part of the Kingdom’s plans to develop the nuclear reactor industry and train human resources to operate these reactors.

In late 2022, Saudi Arabia announced a tender to build its first nuclear power plant, consisting of two power generation units, as part of its plans to generate electricity from nuclear energy, reaching 17 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2040.

Therefore, it can be said that Saudi Arabia’s interest in civilian nuclear energy is neither new nor surprising. The question, however, is: What does Saudi Arabia gain from the civilian nuclear project?

Consequences of Saudi Arabia’s nuclear project

There are two reasons why Riyadh might want to do this. First, under the ambitious Saudi Vision 2030 launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom seeks to generate significant renewable energy and reduce emissions.

Nuclear power is expected to contribute to at least some of this. Some suggest a second possible reason: Riyadh may want to gain nuclear expertise in case it ever seeks to acquire nuclear weapons.

But any agreement with Washington would include safeguards to prevent that. The Saudi crown prince has said that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will follow suit, a position that has raised significant concerns among arms control advocates and some members of the U.S. Congress regarding a potential U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear agreement.

However, from an economic standpoint, if the project is approved, it will increase the production of nuclear energy, a clean energy with zero or very limited emissions.

Consequently, it will be used in more than one area, such as electricity generation and water desalination, in addition to contributing to commercial activities such as exporting electricity to other countries in the Gulf region and even beyond, all within the framework of serving sustainable economic development.

If Saudi Arabia completes its nuclear project and uses it for a variety of purposes, such as electricity generation, water desalination, and thermal energy production for industrial processes, this would save approximately two million barrels of oil and millions of liquefied cubic meters of natural gas.

Instead of being consumed, these gases would be diverted to international markets, generating revenue for Saudi Arabia.

This is the core of the project’s economic feasibility. For Saudi Arabia, the peaceful uses of nuclear energy are extremely broad, encompassing virtually every sector, from heavy industry to desert agriculture, as well as medicine, engineering, and even space exploration.

The US aims to sponsor the Saudi nuclear project for two reasons. The first is purely commercial, as the U.S. nuclear industry is in a predicament.

The Americans have not sold any of their nuclear capabilities to any country in the Middle East in recent years, whether Egypt or Türkiye, as these two countries rely on Russian technology. The UAE has chosen South Korea.

Therefore, the US president wants to restore the U.S. nuclear industry to prominence, and what better country to do this than Saudi Arabia, especially since the Americans have expensive technology that not all countries can afford?

Moreover, some reports indicated that when Washington asked Riyadh to establish formal relations with Israel, Riyadh’s response included three basic conditions for achieving this: reformulating defense relations between the two countries to meet Saudi national security needs; obtaining U.S. recognition of the legitimacy of Saudi Arabia’s peaceful nuclear program through support for this program and providing assistance to it; and settling the Palestinian issue based on the principles of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.

Obstacles to the implementation of the Saudi nuclear project

The Saudi nuclear project, although a civilian nuclear project, has caught the attention of Israelis. Meir Ben-Shabbat, former head of Israel’s National Security Council, stated in an article published in the newspaper Israel Hayom that the Saudi nuclear program requires extensive examination and analysis, and that clear decisions regarding it must be made immediately, without any long-term risks.

He emphasized that the major dilemma in the Saudi demands relates to the requirement to “enrich uranium locally.” He warned that Saudi Arabia’s joining the nuclear club would expand the scope of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and spark a race among other countries in the region to acquire nuclear capabilities.

These Israeli objections to the Saudi nuclear project could hinder any future Saudi-American cooperation, particularly given the power and influence of the Jewish lobby in America. Although if Saudi Arabia is unable to secure its defense and nuclear energy needs from the United States, it may turn to Russia and/or China.

Despite widespread reactions to the Saudi nuclear project, it is not the first nuclear project in the Gulf region. The main difference lies in the dispute over uranium re-enrichment and reprocessing.

In 2009, the UAE decided to utilize South Korean technology in the nuclear fuel cycle, without any enrichment capability. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia continues to assert its full rights in the nuclear fuel cycle.

Saudi Arabia’s insistence on these rights presents numerous obstacles to the nuclear project. These difficulties can be summarized as follows: One key issue is whether Washington will agree to the construction of a uranium enrichment facility on Saudi soil, and whether Saudi personnel will be allowed to enter it or whether it will be operated solely by American personnel under an arrangement that allows exclusive American control over the project.

Saudi Arabia may reject this, as it considers the Saudi nuclear project a long-term endeavor aimed at localizing nuclear technology in Saudi Arabia and at Saudi hands, or at least with the participation of Saudi personnel.

Timeframe may also be an obstacle. The construction of a nuclear reactor for energy generation takes six to eight years, as we have witnessed in more than one country recently. Before uranium becomes suitable for use as fuel for nuclear power plants, it undergoes five stages called the “full fuel cycle.”

This is what Saudi Arabia intends to implement as part of its project, according to statements by its officials. This is despite international caution and sometimes opposition, as this step would allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, which could be used at any time to produce nuclear weapons.

In this context, some reports indicate that what has delayed the Saudi nuclear program to date is its insistence on its “sovereign right to utilize the full nuclear fuel cycle.”

Despite Saudi Arabia’s desire, it will be technically difficult for Riyadh to develop key elements of the fuel cycle or other elements of a weapons program, given its limited nuclear expertise and the limited defense industrial base.

Saudi Arabia will face significant difficulties if it wants to enrich uranium to levels above 5%, as all the problems and challenges lie in enriching to 20%. Reaching that level requires precise and advanced technologies and centrifuges. Even if Saudi Arabia wanted to do so, it would not be an easy task politically and internationally, as it would face the same fate as Iran.

Therefore, theoretically, if the U.S. were to accede to Saudi wishes, Saudi Arabia, which possesses uranium ore, would be able to use the enrichment facility to produce highly enriched uranium, which, if refined sufficiently, could produce the fissile material needed to make bombs. This would likely force the U.S. to tighten its conditions before approving the Saudi nuclear project.

Therefore, it is too early to say whether the Saudi nuclear project will see the light of day soon. Numerous negotiations and meetings remain, during which several solutions suitable for both parties could be reached.

However, historical experience has shown that the spread of nuclear technology in a tense region like the Middle East could lead to a nuclear arms race, as occurred between India and Pakistan. There have been exceptions, most notably India, which could represent a window of hope for Saudi Arabia, given its insistence on such an exception.