Poll shows strong opposition to Netanyahu’s IDF draft bill, only 19% support in Israel

A new Channel 12 poll in Israel found that only 19% of respondents support a proposed IDF draft law from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. The bill, still under debate, is expected to maintain longstanding exemptions allowing most ultra-Orthodox men to avoid military or national service.

Why it matters

The draft law has sparked intense political and public backlash. Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners threaten to topple the government if it fails to pass, while opponents argue that enshrining wide-ranging exemptions undermines public trust and fairness in national service obligations.

Details

• Public opinion:
  • 47% say they oppose the new draft bill; 19% support it; 13% have no opinion; 21% haven’t heard about it.
  • 54% believe the law will lead to “evasion of the IDF draft by the ultra-Orthodox,” while 20% anticipate actual ultra-Orthodox participation in the IDF.

• Political fallout:
  • Former defense minister Yoav Gallant, fired by Netanyahu in November partly over his opposition to the law, plans to resign from the Knesset in protest.
  • When asked whom they trust more, 41% of those polled chose Gallant over Netanyahu (33%).
• Legal backdrop:
  • In June, the High Court ruled that ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students must be drafted because there is no legal framework for their long-standing exemptions.
  • Ultra-Orthodox coalition parties demand legislation that ensures broad exemptions, while the government seeks to balance court rulings with coalition pressure.

Zoom in

• Attorney general’s warning: Gali Baharav-Miara insists that any new draft legislation must include penalties for draft evasion and reflect Israel’s altered security needs post-October 2023 Hamas attack.
• Likud succession: If Netanyahu leaves office, Justice Minister Yariv Levin is favored among government supporters to take over leadership of Likud, but across all respondents, Gallant is preferred.

Zoom out

• Ben Gvir’s revolt: A majority (59%) believe Netanyahu should fire National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who has been voting against the coalition to push for a higher police budget.
• Snap elections: 55% think elections should be moved up, while 39% prefer to keep the scheduled date in October 2026.
• Leadership matchups: Netanyahu outperforms rivals such as Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz in hypothetical matchups but loses narrowly to former premier Naftali Bennett (37% to 36%).

The poll underscores growing tensions over ultra-Orthodox enlistment and reveals mounting dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s government. Both the future of the draft legislation and the possibility of early elections could shape Israel’s political landscape in the coming months.