How’s Türkiye relevant to Syria’s new agreement?

Türkiye has cautiously acknowledged the agreement between the Syrian government’s leader Ahmad al-Sharaa and YPG terrorist group ringleader Ferhat Abdi Sahin, signaling a potential shift in regional dynamics in a historic day for Syria.

The deal, which involves the integration of all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria into a central administration, comes as Türkiye conducts a relevant process called “terror-free Türkiye”. While some view it as a possible step toward stabilizing the region, others remain skeptical about its long-term implications for Türkiye and Syria’s national security.

The newly signed agreement stipulates that critical infrastructure, including border crossings, airports, and oil fields, will come under Syrian state control, foreseeing a united Syria under the new administration rule. Given the external efforts to grant autonomy to the terrorist group for a decade, the agreement presents both opportunities and risks that must be assessed carefully for Türkiye.

Türkiye’s concerns and position

Ankara has consistently opposed any form of Kurdish autonomy in Syria, arguing that it could embolden separatist movements within its borders. In general, the agreement does not explicitly grant autonomy to the YPG, a point that may align with Türkiye’s strategic interests.

However, opposition figures within Türkiye, such as Cenk Ozatici from the Good Party (IYI Parti), have raised concerns that the agreement might legitimize the YPG by joining state apparatuses and hinder future Turkish military operations in case of need. Despite these reservations, Omer Ozkizilcik, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, argues that Türkiye retains the flexibility to act independently if the agreement fails to address its security concerns.

The expert highlights that while the agreement exists on paper, its practical implementation will determine its true impact, like every agreement. He asserts that even if the agreement turns out to be unfavorable for Türkiye, Ankara is not bound by it and can act in its interests. Türkiye sees the agreement as fluid and contingent on how events unfold on the ground.

Is the agreement aligned with ‘Terror-free Türkiye’ project?

The recent developments in Syria are unfolding in parallel with Türkiye’s broader efforts to eliminate terrorism within its borders and dismantle the PKK’s influence regionally. The Terror-Free Türkiye initiative, spearheaded by Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli, has become a cornerstone of Türkiye’s domestic security policy. The initiative aims to bring a definitive end to the PKK’s armed presence through disarmament and dissolution, a move that has received support from the government and some opposition parties.

According to reports, the PKK is expected to convene in Iraq next month to discuss its formal dissolution. The Turkish government sees this as a critical moment, as the group’s senior leadership faces a do-or-die decision regarding their future. Bahceli has emphasized that all PKK-affiliated groups, including the YPG in Syria, must immediately lay down their arms and surrender their weapons to Türkiye.

For some analysts like Ihsan Aktas, the agreement with the Syrian government is directly linked to the ongoing process in Türkiye. Terror group YPG’s political arm PYD ringleader Salih Muslim said, “We are not outside of what was said in that (PKK’s imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan’s) letter. We have not gone beyond the points stated by the leadership.” He gave a parallel message to the mentioned comment.

Several analysts say the YPG is trying to buy time, until the end of the year. While the U.S. has not yet had the last word on Syria, some believe that the YPG is signing this agreement to buy time until it finds another patronage in case the U.S. withdraws its support. 

On the other hand, some strategists believe that the deal is beneficial for the terrorist organization because it gives it time and stability.

The agreement’s implementation will play a crucial role in shaping Türkiye’s future actions. If the YPG successfully integrates into the Syrian state and eliminates PKK-linked elements, it could align with Türkiye’s objectives. However, if the YPG seeks to retain a separate identity and maintains its ties to the PKK, Türkiye is likely to respond with further military operations.

Türkiye’s actions following the agreement demonstrate its cautious approach. Despite the signing of the deal, Turkish airstrikes targeting YPG positions continued, signaling Ankara’s unwillingness to ease pressure on the group, suggesting that Türkiye will closely monitor the implementation of the agreement before altering its stance.

Implications for northeastern Syria

One of the most significant consequences of this deal is the apparent collapse of the terrorist group’s ambition to establish a semi-autonomous statelet in northeastern Syria. Analysts point out that by signing this agreement, ringleader Mazloum Abdi has effectively accepted the dissolution of the autonomous administration project.

The YPG, which forcibly conscripted individuals, has been struggling with internal cohesion. Reports indicate high desertion rates among its ranks, with some areas seeing up to 90% of fighters abandoning the organization upon local revolts and Turkish pressure increasing. The prospect of integration into the Syrian Army could further accelerate this process, as many fighters may choose to leave military service rather than join the central government’s forces.

The agreement also stipulates that Syrian Kurdish political groups will be allowed to operate within the Syrian political system. One day after the agreement, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed the agreement between Damascus and the YPG in Syria stating that its full implementation would benefit the Syrian people and facilitate Turkish-Kurdish-Arab brotherhood in the region.

United States supported the initiative

Internationally, the United States is believed to have played a key role in facilitating the agreement. Washington has reportedly been urging the ‘SDF’, which is a term created by Pentagon to describe an armed group led by YPG, to cooperate with Damascus as a potential precursor to an eventual U.S. military withdrawal from Syria. 

A top U.S. diplomat endorsed the agreement to integrate the YPG into state institutions, as U.S. officials emphasized their primary concern is securing prisons holding Daesh fighters.

Turkish pro-government media outlets have interpreted the agreement as a victory, with some headlines suggesting that the YPG capitulated under pressure.

What comes next?

While the agreement represents a significant political shift, its implementation remains uncertain. The deal’s success hinges on whether the YPG follows through on commitments such as expelling PKK-affiliated fighters and integrating into the Syrian government’s command structure, as Abdi’s lengthy interview after the ceremony sends mixed signals.

Ankara will closely monitor these developments, ensuring that the agreement does not result in an undesired strengthening of terrorist influence. Turkish policymakers remain prepared to act unilaterally should they perceive any threat to national security.

Ultimately, the agreement’s durability will be tested in the coming months. If fully implemented, it could redefine Syria’s political landscape and reshape Türkiye’s security calculations. 

One critical factor that may determine the success or failure of this agreement is the level of U.S. involvement. While Washington has pressured the YPG to accept the deal, the extent to which it will continue to support terrorist groups in Syria remains uncertain. If the U.S. decides to fully withdraw from the region, it could accelerate the integration process or leave the YPG vulnerable to further fragmentation.