How will Israel retaliate against Iran?

Following the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah by Israel in Beirut last week, Iran launched a series of ballistic missile strikes on Israel on Tuesday.

According to reports from the Israeli military, around 180 missiles were fired, though no casualties were reported as most were intercepted. Iran claimed it had targeted three military bases in the Tel Aviv area. Attention now turns to how Israel will retaliate.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised retaliation, stating that Iran had made “a grave mistake” and “would pay the price.”

The U.S. quickly voiced its support for Israel. Speaking from the White House, President Joe Biden said, “Make no mistake, the United States fully, fully, fully supports Israel” and added that discussions were underway regarding an appropriate response.

Marc Owen Jones, an analyst at Northwestern University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that Iran’s strike was likely calculated to avoid further escalation, but he cautioned that Israel’s response could be “unpredictable.”

Andreas Krieg, a lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, suggested that Israel would respond forcefully to maintain its deterrence capability.

Israeli officials have indicated that all options are being considered. Potential responses include strikes on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities, assassinations of members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and special operations against military assets.

Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari stated that Israel would retaliate “when, where, and how it chooses.”

Former Israeli PM calls for Iran’s destruction

On the other hand Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called for decisive action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In a message shared on X (formerly Twitter) after Iran’s missile attack, Bennett urged, “Now is the time to act to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to deal a deadly blow to this terrorist regime.”

Two key sites at the heart of Iran’s nuclear program are the Natanz uranium enrichment complex and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. Isfahan, where Israel conducted strikes in April, is home to numerous important military and industrial sites.

However, retaliating against Iran’s nuclear facilities in response to an attack that caused minimal damage to Israel could be viewed as disproportionate and could backfire, potentially prompting Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program as a deterrent.

Biden opposes attack on nuclear facilities

On Wednesday, President Biden stated that he would not support an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iran’s Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Mohammad Bagheri, warned that if Israel were to attack Iranian territory, the Revolutionary Guards were prepared to respond “with exponentially increased intensity.”

In addition, various sources indicate that Israel may target senior strategic figures, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.