Hamas will remain in power in Gaza after war, says Israeli analyst

Hours after a cease-fire deal took effect in Gaza on Sunday, a large number of Hamas fighters appeared in Gaza City during the handover of three Israeli women held captive in the enclave.

The scene shocked Israel, which had vowed to eliminate the resistance group in its 15-month war that has killed nearly 47,000 people, mostly women and children, and injured over 110,700 since October 7, 2023.

“Even after 15 months of war, Hamas remains in place,” Israeli analyst Avi Issacharoff wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

“Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government said it would eradicate Hamas, the group not only survived militarily but also maintained its rule,” he added.

“For months, Netanyahu and his ministers refused to seriously discuss finding an alternative to Hamas’ rule, despite warnings from security officials that the war would ultimately be futile.”

Issacharoff described the re-emergence of Hamas as “the greatest failure of this war.”

He criticized the government’s lack of a post-war plan for Gaza, calling it “criminal and deliberate neglect.”

“We’ve reached the day after, albeit temporarily, and Israel wakes up from one nightmare to another. On the other side of the border, Hamas continues to rule, build tunnels, and recruit more people,” Issacharoff said.

Habithonistim

Brigadier General Amir Avivi, head of the non-governmental organization “Habithonistim” (The Securityists), said Israeli security authorities focused on destroying Hamas as a military entity and assassinating its leaders.

“While parts of Hamas’ leadership were eliminated, Israel has not taken concrete steps to overthrow the movement as a governing authority,” he told Maariv newspaper.

“Despite the severe damage to their munitions stockpile, politically and in the eyes of the population in Gaza, Hamas remains the sovereign power,” Avivi said.

Meanwhile, military analyst Amos Harel of Israeli media outlet Haaretz echoed the sentiment.

“In the center of Gaza City, several kilometers from where Israeli troops were operating days ago, hundreds of armed activists emerged. It appears Hamas is displaying both its military strength and its aspiration to reestablish civilian governance,” Harel said.

“But this is not yet a fait accompli; other arrangements for Gaza’s future may be discussed in the coming months,” he noted.

“Hamas sought on Sunday to project strength as Israeli forces withdrew from friction points across Gaza.”

Israel fails to achieve its goals

Harel dismissed Netanyahu’s threats to resume the Gaza war after the first phase of the six-week cease-fire agreement, calling them largely theoretical.

“Talk of resuming the war after Phase 1, which is supposed to end in six weeks, is mainly theoretical now. The decision lies with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump,” Harel said.

He concluded with a bleak assessment: “The sad truth is that Israel largely lost the war on October 7, 2023.”

Analysts agree that Israel has failed to achieve its main objectives in Gaza, including the return of captives and dismantling Hamas’ capabilities.

“We have long told the Israeli government that Hamas cannot be defeated by military force alone,” outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a speech at the Atlantic Council in Washington on January 14.

“That’s exactly what has played out in northern Gaza since October 7th. Each time Israel completes military operations and withdraws, Hamas regroups and reemerges because there is no alternative to fill the void. In fact, we assess that Hamas has recruited nearly as many militants as it has lost. This is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”

The three-phase cease-fire deal in Gaza includes a prisoner exchange and sustained calm, aiming for a permanent truce and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

The war has left over 11,000 people missing and caused widespread destruction, resulting in a humanitarian crisis that has claimed many lives, especially among the elderly and children, in one of the worst global humanitarian disasters.

In November, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its actions in the enclave.