US elections and challenges of BRICS’ rise

As the world closely watches the American presidential elections, the reason is clear: while around 240 million Americans have the right to vote, billions of people worldwide, who lack that right, are still affected by the election’s outcome.

Global interest in the U.S. elections stems from America’s global influence as the world’s largest economic and military power. U.S. policies affect numerous global issues, from economics to security and climate change. Thus, the future U.S. president holds the power to create far-reaching changes that will impact many nations.

U.S. foreign policy shapes international conflicts, nuclear negotiations, and relations with allies and adversaries alike. A change in administration could mean significant policy shifts affecting relations with key players like China, Russia, the Middle East and Europe. Additionally, given that the U.S. economy is the largest globally, any policy changes in areas like trade, investment, or the value of the dollar can have ripple effects worldwide.

Economics has become the primary driver of international relations, shaping a new world order. Much of the discourse on declining American influence is rooted in signs of U.S. economic retreat, alongside the rising economic power of other countries and blocs, like China. This dynamic raises the possibility that the rise of major economies might reduce America’s status as a superpower.

However, upon closer examination, China still has a long way to go before it can fully rival the U.S. China faces several challenges, including underdevelopment in rural areas, demographic issues, and weaker technological advancement and military capabilities compared to the U.S. Additionally, global security challenges like energy and environmental security place further pressures on China’s internal situation, increasing the likelihood of domestic unrest.

BRICS: Aspirations vs. challenges in countering West

In recent years, the BRICS bloc – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – has emerged as a counterbalance to Western dominance, particularly that of the U.S. and the European Union, over international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. These nations have felt that their interests were often overlooked and that they needed a stronger voice in global economics and politics.

The BRICS countries aim to foster economic cooperation through expanded trade and joint investment. They seek to balance the global economy by reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, promoting trade in local currencies, and expanding intra-group trade. Additionally, BRICS seeks to diversify the global financial system by establishing alternative institutions like the New Development Bank.

One of the primary goals of BRICS is to increase its influence in global decision-making on issues like climate change, international security, and terrorism, offering an alternative worldview to that of the West and promoting multipolarity.

Yet, BRICS faces numerous obstacles that hinder its ability to effectively counter U.S. influence and dominance. These challenges were particularly evident after the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, where the group’s future direction was a focal point.

The BRICS countries differ greatly in terms of economic size, development levels, and political systems. China is the world’s second-largest economy, while South Africa’s economy is significantly smaller. These disparities make it difficult to harmonize economic policies and set shared goals. China’s political system, for example, is vastly different from India’s democratic framework, complicating mutual agreement on certain issues.

Moreover, tensions between India and China, especially regarding their border disputes, hinder the bloc’s cohesion and ability to present a unified front on global issues. These tensions pose a real threat to BRICS unity.

Although BRICS seeks to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar, member economies remain heavily tied to the global financial system centered on the dollar. Countries like China and Russia are particularly interested in finding alternatives, yet implementing these alternatives is a long-term endeavor requiring significant investment, especially given BRICS’ relatively weak financial institutions compared to the IMF and World Bank.

Additionally, each BRICS nation has distinct national priorities. China focuses on expanding its trade footprint, while Russia is more concerned with security and energy issues, and Brazil and South Africa are primarily focused on domestic development.

Some BRICS countries, like Russia and China, face Western sanctions that restrict their international movement and maneuvering. These sanctions affect the group’s image on the world stage, causing some countries to hesitate in fully supporting BRICS due to potential repercussions on their Western ties.

During the Kazan summit, there were calls to expand BRICS membership to other countries. However, bringing in new members presents challenges, including differing objectives and priorities among potential new members and fears of dominance by larger nations within the bloc, which could exacerbate internal divides.

Kazakhstan’s strategic shift toward BRICS

Since Western sanctions on Russia began, Kazakhstan has emerged as a key geopolitical player amid global changes. Sanctions have restricted trade routes through Russia, making Kazakhstan an alternative transit route for trade between Russia, Asia, and Europe. Kazakhstan has also been developing logistical corridors, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which strengthens its role as a strategic trade hub.

Kazakhstan has shown increasing interest in deepening its cooperation with BRICS, participating as an observer at BRICS meetings and actively seeking to strengthen relations with member states such as China, India, and Russia. This alignment is vital to enhancing its economic and political standing on the global stage, diversifying its partnerships, and reducing its reliance on the West.

In a recent conversation with the author at the 2024 Global Investment Forum (KGIR-2024) in Astana on Nov. 1, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantirov highlighted that his country maintains very positive relations with all BRICS countries.

He noted that about half of Kazakhstan’s trade is with BRICS members, especially China, Russia, and India, and expressed optimism for the future of trade with BRICS, pointing to potential cooperation in technology, transport, and investment.

“Today, we are a major partner in this bloc, which aligns well with our expectations for collaboration with BRICS,” he said.

Dr. Basel Haj Jasem is a researcher and political adviser.