Is Santorini safe? Experts warn of possible volcano eruption, tsunami, earthquake

The Greek island of Santorini is experiencing an ongoing series of earthquakes, with more than 8,000 tremors recorded since late January.

The situation has sparked widespread concern among residents and authorities, as uncertainty remains over whether the seismic activity is linked to a potential volcanic eruption or solely caused by tectonic shifts.

Experts are closely monitoring potential risks, including the possibility of a major earthquake, tsunami, or even a small-scale volcanic eruption.

What is happening on Greek island of Santorini? Latest earthquake updates

A 5.0-magnitude earthquake struck the sea area between Santorini and Amorgos early Wednesday morning at 3:14 a.m., followed by a 4.6-magnitude tremor an hour later. Several smaller aftershocks continued in quick succession.

According to the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens, the seismic swarm has been ongoing for weeks, with tremors being felt even in Athens.

Professor Efthymios Lekkas, president of the Greek Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (OASP), described the situation as “unprecedented.”

• He explained that the sequence consists of many small and intermediate tremors, making it difficult to determine whether a primary earthquake has already occurred.

However, not all experts agree with this assessment.

• Seismologist Gerasimos Papadopoulos has stated that while the current swarm is significant, similar seismic patterns have been observed in Greece before, citing historical examples from Fokida and Lesvos in the 1980s.

Could a major earthquake strike Santorini next?

Seismologist Akis Tselentis suggested that a 6.0-magnitude earthquake is a possibility. He warned that while current tremors are within expected parameters, the situation remains dynamic.

• “From the start, I noted that there is a complex relationship between fault lines and rising magma. The total seismic energy released so far is equivalent to a 6.0-magnitude earthquake.”
• “If a large lateral fault near Amorgos is activated, the magnitude could increase significantly. This scenario does not appear likely at the moment, but it cannot be ruled out. If it happens, it could lead to a major earthquake with potential tsunami implications.”

Other experts caution against arriving at conclusions too quickly. Seismologist Manolis Skordilis argues that a standalone 6.0-magnitude earthquake is unlikely, as the accumulated energy from the seismic swarm has already reached an equivalent of 6.1, suggesting that further large tremors may not necessarily follow.

The unpredictability of seismic activity remains a key challenge. While some experts believe the tremors could decrease over time, others emphasize that continued movement along the fault lines means uncertainty remains high.

Is a volcanic eruption in Santorini possible?

One of the biggest uncertainties is whether the earthquakes are linked to volcanic activity in Santorini.

Scenario A:

Professor Evi Nomikou, a geological oceanographer and volcanologist, clarified that the current seismic events are unrelated to volcanic activity at Nea Kameni, Santorini’s central volcanic island.

• “The epicenters are shifting northeast, but there is no indication that the large Amorgos fault has been affected.”

However, she acknowledged the importance of monitoring both the seismic and volcanic systems closely.

Scenario B:

In contrast, Konstantinos Synolakis pointed to some signs that suggest a potential eruption.

• “Since summer, there has been ground deformation in the caldera area, and gases have been observed rising from the Kolumbo underwater volcano. These, combined with seismic activity and the movement of volcanic fluids, make a small-scale eruption a possibility,” he said.
• “Despite these observations, if an eruption were to happen, it would not be of catastrophic proportions. We are not talking about a massive eruption like the one in 1600 BC. However, a minor eruption could still trigger fault movement and additional earthquakes.”

However, experts stress that there is no certainty of an eruption. Many researchers argue that the current seismic activity is primarily tectonic rather than magmatic and that while volcanic monitoring is necessary, an eruption remains hypothetical.

Key events timeline: Tracking seismic activity in Santorini

• Jan. 26: First series of small tremors recorded.
• Feb. 1: Authorities declare a state of emergency.
• Feb. 7: Additional rescue teams deployed.
• Feb. 12: 8,000+ earthquakes recorded, experts remain divided.

Are tsunamis among Santorini risks?

Tsunami risks remain a concern, as past seismic events in the region have triggered destructive waves.

A scientific study led by Marilia Gogu and her team at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens assessed the tsunami risks for Santorini, Anafi and Amorgos.

What did the study reveal?

The study identified the eastern and southeastern coasts of Santorini as particularly vulnerable.

“A tsunami could flood the main power station on the island and even reach the airport if its magnitude is significant,” the researchers stated.

Should Greece prepare for a volcano eruption?

• Experts emphasize that not all earthquakes trigger tsunamis
• A tsunami would likely require a major undersea earthquake or a landslide
• While the possibility exists, it is not a guaranteed outcome of the current seismic activity

For Anafi, the risk is lower due to steep coastal cliffs, with the exception of the port area. In Amorgos, the northern parts of the island, particularly the areas of Rachidi and Aegiali, are at higher risk due to their topography and human activity.

Experts divided on the future of Santorini’s seismic activity

Seismologists remain divided on what the future holds. Professor Dimitris Papanikolaou suggested that a 6.0-magnitude earthquake is within expectations but manageable.

• “Such a quake would cause some damage but is within a range we can handle,” he said, ruling out a larger seismic event.

However, Kostas Papazachos, a professor of seismology, argued that a stronger earthquake cannot be ruled out.

• “We are not heading toward stabilization. If the main fault breaks, it could impact multiple islands, but the models suggest limited overall damage,” he said.

Many experts agree that seismic activity is expected to persist for weeks or even months. While a sudden escalation is not guaranteed, ongoing tremors are likely.

Uncertainty continues: What to expect in Santorini

As of Feb. 12, experts remain cautious about making definitive predictions. While some argue that the seismic activity will gradually subside, others believe that continued tremors may persist for weeks or months.

Authorities continue to monitor the situation, urging residents and tourists to stay alert but not panic. While both earthquakes and volcanic activity remain possibilities, many researchers suggest that the ongoing tremors are part of a seismic swarm rather than an imminent catastrophic event.

The scientific community will reconvene on Feb. 15 to reassess the situation and issue new reports. Authorities have also declared a state of emergency for at least a month, indicating that continued monitoring and further decisions will follow beyond that date.