US-Türkiye trade relations enter new phase in Trump’s second term

With Donald Trump beginning his second presidential term, U.S.-Türkiye economic relations are poised for increased attention, particularly following a record-breaking $32.5 billion in bilateral trade achieved in 2024.

The ambitious goal of reaching $100 billion in trade volume between the two nations stands as a primary objective, building on significant growth trends.

Trade between the countries has shown steady expansion, rising from $21.7 billion in 2020 to $32.5 billion in 2024—marking an approximately 50% increase over four years.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed this target during a September 2024 roundtable meeting with think tank representatives at Turkevi in New York.

“Although our trade volume exceeded $30 billion in 2023, we believe we can increase this figure to $100 billion,” Erdogan said.

The economic agenda extends beyond trade figures. More than 2,000 U.S.-owned companies currently operate in Türkiye, and investments are expected to grow. Turkish Airlines is preparing to expand its U.S. destinations from 14 to 15 in spring, strengthening transportation links between the nations.

Challenges ahead US-Türkiye trade

However, potential challenges loom. Trump’s recent announcements regarding new customs tariffs have raised questions about their impact on Turkish exports. Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat has specifically highlighted concerns about textile sector tariffs and restrictions on steel exports.

Energy cooperation also features prominently in bilateral relations, particularly following Trump’s declaration of a “national energy emergency” on his first day in office and his decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. The two countries established an Energy and Climate Dialogue mechanism last year, though its future direction remains uncertain under the new administration.

Defense industry cooperation presents another crucial area for potential growth, with Türkiye seeking a review of sanctions imposed under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Tourism figures reflect strengthening ties, with American visitors to Türkiye reaching a record 1.36 million in the first 11 months of 2024, surpassing the previous year’s total of 1.34 million visitors.