US AI chip restrictions affect Türkiye’s path forward in techno-politics

The United States has expanded its restrictions on the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips, extending measures that were previously focused on China to include several new countries.

Türkiye has now been added to the restricted nations, raising concerns over its technological development and strategic partnerships. 

How chip restrictions work: A two-tier system

Under the new policy, countries have been categorized into two tiers, each with different levels of access to advanced AI chip technologies. Tier 1, comprising the U.S.’s closest allies such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, retains access to advanced chips like Nvidia’s flagship models.

However, this access comes with strict limitations. Only 75% of the chips acquired may be used domestically, while the remaining 25% is subject to highly regulated global distribution. Of this allocation, no more than 3% can be shared with Tier 2 nations.

Türkiye, classified as a Tier 2 nation, faces much stricter restrictions. Between 2025 and 2027, Tier 2 nations are limited to purchasing just 50,000 units of AI chips, none of which will be among the latest technological advancements, such as Nvidia’s H-100 models. In order to give a clue, the recently slammed Chinese product Deepseek is rumored to be built with 10,000 units of the Nvidia H-100.

Alp Cenk Arslan, an assistant professor specializing in security and intelligence studies at the Turkish National Police Academy, provides critical insights into the implications of these restrictions. 

According to Arslan, “The U.S. restriction on advanced AI chip exports, particularly listing Türkiye in Tier 2, is likely to have short-term consequences. These include AI development delays, supply chain disruptions, and increased costs for industries relying on cutting-edge technologies.”

Türkiye’s path

Türkiye followed a strategic balancing approach in techno-politics today. “From now on, with the Trump 2.0 administration, the borders will be clearer and Türkiye may see pressure,” Arslan pointed out. “However, Trump’s economic pragmatism also has several possible advantages for Türkiye. We can see new agreements between the U.S. and Türkiye,” he added.

The expert underscores the importance of Türkiye’s 2025–2027 Medium-Term Program, which prioritizes AI clusters, R&D centers, and alignment with the European Union’s AI regulations.

“Türkiye approaches the issue at a strategic level,” Arslan explains. “The initiatives include expanding AI research infrastructure and computing resources, developing 5G networks and satellite technologies such as nano and microsatellite, and supporting SMEs with modular digital tools to boost adoption.”

While Türkiye still lags behind global leaders in AI chip production, it has made considerable progress in domestic projects. Arslan noted, “CAKIL, a 16nm indigenous processor, has been designed for defense applications, including UAVs and fire control systems. Similarly, CENTIK, manufactured by TSMC, targets home appliances, robotics, and IoT. The YONCA project, on the other hand, aims to develop sub-7nm chips for advanced applications.”

Investments in local production also stand out as a cornerstone of Türkiye’s technological strategy. “Türkiye has allocated $5 billion to the HIT-30 High Technology Investment Program to boost domestic chip production, including plans for an industrial-scale chip factory,” Arslan highlighted.

Strategic collaborations with Turkish tech giants such as Aselsan and Arcelik, as well as research institutions like TUBITAK BILGEM, further support the country’s drive to reduce its dependency on foreign technologies. Arslan points out that Türkiye is working to align its AI regulations with the EU, a move that could attract European investments and foster technological partnerships.

Türkiye is also working to align its AI regulations with the EU, which could attract European investments and partnerships.

However, Türkiye still faces challenges. “The reliance on foreign manufacturers such as TSMC for production and a technological gap compared to global leaders like TSMC and Intel remain as hurdles,” Arslan warned.

Recent developments demonstrate Türkiye’s proactive approach to these challenges. Last Monday, Turkcell announced its TUBITAK-supported project titled ‘AI-P5G: Cloud-Based 5G Network Management with AI-Supported Optimization.’

“This initiative is expected to enhance operational efficiency and contribute to Türkiye’s technological ecosystem,” Arslan explains. “It represents a critical step in bolstering digital transformation efforts across sectors and strengthening Türkiye’s position in AI and 5G technologies.”

Implications for Türkiye and the region

Türkiye’s inclusion in the restricted Tier 2 category is a notable development, particularly given its role as a NATO ally. The limitations could hinder the country’s progress in defense, academia, and private-sector innovation, areas heavily reliant on high-performance computing technologies. This includes research in AI-driven applications for industrial automation, scientific discovery, and national defense.

Despite the substantial implications, Türkiye’s government has not issued a public response. Unlike the European Union, where officials have criticized the restrictions for undermining allied trust, there has been silence from Turkish authorities, raising questions about the country’s strategic direction in light of these limitations.

On the other hand, the European Union, which includes several Tier 1 countries, has voiced concerns over the policy. EU officials argue that the restrictions could damage transatlantic trust and hinder collaborative efforts in technology development. The tech industry, too, has expressed frustration. Companies like Nvidia, Intel, and AMD have stated that the new export controls will disrupt supply chains and limit revenue opportunities in rapidly growing markets.

Nvidia, in particular, has been vocal about the difficulties these restrictions impose. Once focused primarily on managing compliance related to exports to China, Nvidia must now move into a far more complex regulatory landscape. While intended to maintain U.S. technological superiority, these measures may inadvertently create additional challenges for American companies.

The politics of AI

The restriction on AI chips is not new and was in place under Biden. But Trump has been particularly scrupulous on issues like AI and crypto. The fact that AI technologies are reshaping sectors such as autonomous vehicles, national defense, and advanced manufacturing makes it a strategic product that cannot be open-sourced for public use.  

Hence, the implications extend beyond economic disruptions. The inability to access high-performance AI chips may hinder Türkiye’s national defense projects, where AI technologies play a pivotal role in areas such as UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and automated fire control systems. 

There are also no clear details about the limits and lines of restrictions. High-performance AI chips, like Nvidia’s H-100, for example, are crucial for powering large-scale machine learning models and performing computationally intensive tasks, but whether it can be bought by the Ministry of Defense is not yet known.

By limiting access to these chips, the U.S. aims to maintain a strategic advantage over rivals and keep allies dependent on itself. However, critics argue that this approach risks alienating key partners and could lead to unintended consequences, such as spurring innovation in non-U.S. markets to fill the gap left by restricted access.

One of the most significant issues with the new restrictions is the lack of transparency. There is limited information on which specific AI chips are restricted and whether exceptions might be made under special circumstances. For Türkiye and other affected nations, this ambiguity complicates long-term planning for technological and industrial investments.

Broader trend in US export controls

The AI chip restrictions are part of a broader pattern of U.S. measures aimed at limiting the dissemination of advanced technologies. Similar restrictions have targeted Chinese electric vehicle brands like BYD, as well as social media platforms like TikTok. These measures are designed to curb the influence of U.S. rivals, but they also affect allies and raise questions about the balance between security and collaboration.

The known legend is that these policies may push affected nations to develop their own technologies, potentially reducing the U.S.’s long-term influence in global markets. For Türkiye and others, success will depend on accelerating domestic production, navigating geopolitical tensions, and leveraging international collaborations.