Türkiye’s economic confidence hits highest level since June 2023: TurkStat

Türkiye’s overall economic confidence index rose to 100.8 in March, marking the highest level since June 2023, according to data released Friday by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

The economic confidence index is a composite measure that reflects the expectations and sentiments of consumers and businesses across key sectors. A reading above 100 points to a generally optimistic view of the economy, while a score below 100 signals pessimism.

The index climbed 1.6% from February’s reading of 99.2, indicating growing optimism about the country’s economic outlook.

March’s improvement means the index has once again surpassed the neutral threshold of 100 for the first time in nearly a year, suggesting renewed confidence in Türkiye’s economic trajectory amid ongoing fiscal and monetary adjustments.

Rising consumer confidence led the positive trend

The uptick was largely driven by a notable increase in consumer confidence, which rose 4.6% month-on-month to reach 85.9. Although still below the 100 threshold, the rise reflects a relative improvement in household sentiment about personal finances, job prospects, and future economic conditions.

Easing inflation also likely contributed to the increase, as the annual rise in the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 39.05% in March, down from 42.12% the previous month—beating market expectations.

Confidence in the real (manufacturing) sector also improved slightly, with the index increasing by 0.4% to 103.2, suggesting steady expectations from industrial producers.

The services sector, which includes industries such as tourism, finance, and logistics, saw a modest rise of 0.2%, pushing its confidence index to 114.4—the highest among all surveyed sectors.

However, not all sectors saw gains, as the retail trade confidence index dropped by 2.5% to 113.4, while the construction sector—sensitive to interest rates and material costs—fell by 0.5% to 88.9.