Türkiye’s annual inflation came in at 48.58%, above market expectations

The latest inflation data released in Türkiye exceeded expectations. Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a significant annual increase of 48.58% in October 2024, according to official data released. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 2.88%.

Meanwhile, according to the unofficial data from Inflation Research Group (ENAG), inflation increased by 5.57% on a monthly basis in October, while annual inflation was realized at 89.77%.

ENAG announced inflation data for October. Accordingly, inflation increased by 5.57% on a monthly basis in October, while annual inflation was realized as 89.77%.

ENAG announced that inflation increased by 5.34% on a monthly basis and 88.63% on an annual basis in September. Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), on the other hand, announced Istanbul’s October inflation as 3.64% monthly and 59.10% annually.

Annual and monthly CPI developments

The CPI (2003=100) rose by 2.88% compared to the previous month and by 39.77% from December 2023. The 12-month moving average showed an increase of 62.02%, underscoring significant inflation over the past year.

Among the main expenditure groups, transportation showed the lowest annual increase at 26.14%, while the education sector recorded the highest rise at 93.66%.

Notable changes in expenditure groups

In October 2024, the transportation sector experienced the largest monthly decrease, at -0.54%. In contrast, the clothing and footwear sector saw the highest monthly increase, with prices rising by 14.32%.

The data encompassed 143 basic headings under the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) at the five-digit level, with 26 indices decreasing, seven remaining unchanged, and 110 showing increases.

Core CPI indicator shows 47.1% annual increase

The core CPI indicator, which excludes unprocessed food, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and gold, increased by 2.69% month-over-month and 47.1% year-over-year.

This measure, which offers insight into underlying inflation trends, rose 40.12% from December 2023 and 62.65% on a twelve-month moving average basis.

Key highlights from the report

• Lowest annual increase: Transportation at 26.14%.
• Highest annual increase: Education at 93.66%.
• Largest monthly decrease: Transportation with -0.54%.
• Largest monthly increase: Clothing and footwear at 14.32%.

First statements from Minister of Finance

Minister of Finance, Republic of Türkiye Mehmet Simsek made the following statements on social media platform X and said, “Annual inflation in October fell by 26.9 points compared to May, reaching 48.6 percent. Annual price increases in core goods were 28.5 percent, while in services where inertia is high, they were 69.8 percent.”

“Annual increases limit the decline in inflation, especially in the rent and education groups, where backward pricing behavior is high. It takes time to remove rigidities, but developments in this regard are positive,” Simsek added.

Minister also said, “The decline in 12-month inflation expectations in October to the lowest level in the last two and a half years in all sectors is important for breaking the inertia in services inflation.”

According to TurkStat data, monthly inflation was 2.88 percent in October, while annual inflation was measured as 48.58 percent. It was expected to increase by 2.61 percent in the Reuters survey and 2.46 percent in the Anadolu Agency Finance survey.