Turkish households lift inflation expectations in March, markets steady

Inflation expectations in Türkiye declined in March for market participants and the real sector, but rose slightly for households, the Turkish central bank reported Tuesday.

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s sectoral inflation expectations survey, 12-month-ahead inflation expectations fell by 0.7 percentage points to 24.6% for market participants and by 0.8 points to 41.1% for the real sector. However, household expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point, reaching 59.3%.

The proportion of households expecting inflation to decline over the next 12 months rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching 31.3%.

Türkiye’s inflation stood at 39.05% in February on an annual basis.

‘Impact of market fluctuations on expectations will be limited’

Commenting on the data in a post on X, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said that inflation expectations among market participants and the real sector had improved. However, he emphasized that the survey did not yet reflect recent market volatility.

“We anticipate that the impact of financial market fluctuations on expectations will be short-term and limited,” Simsek said.

“With strong coordination among all our institutions, we believe the measures taken and tightening financial conditions will have a disinflationary effect. We will resolutely implement our program until we achieve price stability,” he added.