Trump tariffs: A boon or a blow for Turkish steel exports?

Turkish steel exporters remain neutral regarding the Trump tariffs that came into effect on U.S. steel and aluminum imports at a rate of 25%, citing significant uncertainties and inconsistencies in the former U.S. president’s past and current policies.

“Our exports saw a sharp decline in tonnage following the 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. in 2018,” said Ugur Dalbeler, vice chairman of the Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association, during an interview on business-focused Nasil Bir Ekonomi TV on Monday.

Trump introduced tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports in March 2018, marking one of the first steps in his protectionist trade policy. Following this move, U.S. steel imports from Türkiye dropped from $951.6 million in 2017 to $566.76 million in 2018. Despite the decline, Türkiye remained among the top 10 steel suppliers to the U.S.

“It is crucial to see what decisions the U.S. and Trump will make and whether they will be implemented,” Dalbeler said, adding that the U.S. market is not a primary destination for Turkish steel exports.

“Demand in the European market has weakened because of inflationary pressures following the pandemic. Our goal is to expand our market share there while also targeting Africa and Latin America,” he added.

Meanwhile, the European Commission is introducing significant changes to its steel import safeguard measures. Effective April 1, the proposed adjustments will alter import quotas by 13% to 25%, depending on the product category, as reported by EuroMetal, the European Association for the Distribution and Trading of Steel.

The new quotas are expected to affect hot-dip galvanized (HDG) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) volumes. Türkiye, along with Vietnam, Taiwan, and Japan, is among the countries likely to be affected by CRC quota restrictions. For galvanized steel imports, Türkiye, Vietnam, and Japan—major suppliers to the EU—are expected to face limitations.

Additionally, duty-free quota access for specific steel products from countries such as China, India, and Egypt has been restricted.

A level playing field?

Industry representatives in Türkiye suggest that if the U.S. extends the 25% tariff to other countries, it could work in Türkiye’s favor.

They argue that such a move would create a more level playing field, potentially benefiting Turkish steel exporters.

However, some experts believe this would not necessarily provide an advantage for Türkiye, as production standards and market demand differ between countries.

On the other hand, concerns have emerged regarding an influx of steel originally destined for the U.S. seeking alternative markets, potentially disrupting Türkiye’s exports. According to an analysis by Argus, logistical challenges may prevent countries like Canada, Mexico, and Brazil from redirecting their steel exports to Türkiye.

However, South Korea, Vietnam, and Japan—key steel trade partners of the U.S.—may consider Türkiye as an alternative market this year.

Speaking to Arabian Gulf Business Insight, Kaye Ayub, head of price analysis at U.K.-based steel market research firm MEPS International, warned of increased competition.

“With these new tariffs, a significant amount of steel will be looking for alternative buyers,” Ayub said.

“As exports are redirected from the U.S. to other markets, Turkish and Middle Eastern suppliers will find themselves competing with Asian producers, particularly those in China, intensifying competition in the region,” she added.