S&P lowers year-end interest rate forecast for Türkiye
File photo shows a a smartphone displaying the S&P Global logo, set against a background of financial stock market data. The S&P (Standard & Poor’s) 500, a key benchmark for the U.S. stock market, is widely used by investors to gauge market performance. (Adobe Stock Photo)
One of the world’s three major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), has revised its year-end 2025 policy interest rate forecast for Türkiye, lowering it from 35% to 32.5%.
S&P Emerging Markets Chief Economist Elijah Oliveros-Rosen updated interest rate and exchange rate projections for key emerging markets following revisions to expectations regarding U.S. interest rate policies. The updated forecasts include Türkiye’s policy rate and exchange rate outlook.
For 2026, S&P forecasts Türkiye’s policy rate at 20%, while the projection for 2027 stands at 15%, making Türkiye the emerging economy with the highest policy rate through 2027.
Exchange rate forecasts
S&P did not change its exchange rate forecast, maintaining its year-end 2025 USD/TRY estimate at 42. The agency also projects the exchange rate to reach 47 in 2026 and 52 in 2027.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) cut the policy interest rate to 45% in its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Jan. 23. The CBRT’s next policy rate decision is scheduled for Mar. 6 at 1400 (GMT+3), following the committee’s meeting.
