Goldman Sachs anticipates Turkish lira to depreciate to 42 against dollar

Goldman Sachs has maintained its forecast for the Turkish lira’s exchange rate, predicting that the USD/TRY will reach 42 TL in 12 months. The bank held its position despite other market expectations.

Goldman Sachs recently shared an analysis regarding developments in the political arena in Türkiye and its implications for the Turkish lira, as well as the path forward for the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB). Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s detention on March 19 triggered market turmoil and sharp depreciation of Turkish lira against major currencies.

Goldman Sachs stated in its report, “Our view is that the TCMB is more likely to opt for a steady depreciation of the Turkish lira, rather than pausing its rate-cutting cycle. While we acknowledge that the risk of a 250 basis point rate cut at the upcoming April 17 meeting has increased, our overall stance remains unchanged.”

The economists at Goldman Sachs further emphasized that they see no reason to revise their 12-month exchange rate prediction of 42 TL. They forecast that recent developments will have a limited impact on Türkiye’s growth.

Goldman Sachs continues to hold a cautious view regarding the Turkish lira and its future value, maintaining its outlook for a more gradual decline in the currency rather than a significant intervention or change in the central bank’s policies.